Poll suggests fall in support for FG, FF European candidates

Sunday 18 May 2014 10.45
Millward Brown poll for the Irish Independent was taken on Tuesday and Wednesday
Millward Brown poll for the Irish Independent was taken on Tuesday and Wednesday

A new opinion poll shows Sinn Féin's Matt Carthy heading the field in Midlands North West Euro constituency followed by Independent TD, Luke 'Ming' Flanagan.

The poll shows a significant fall in support for Fine Gael MEP Jim Higgins and Fianna Fáil Senator Thomas Byrne.

The poll also shows Fianna Fáil MEP Brian Crowley remaining significantly ahead of all other candidates in the South Euro constituency.

The Millward Brown poll for the Irish Independent, based on a sample of 500 in each Euro constituency, was taken on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The margin of error is plus/minus 4.5%.

Having entered the race late Mr Flanagan, on the basis of this poll, is well placed to win a seat.

In the Midlands North West constituency the findings are:

Matt Carthy, Sinn Féin 19% (+2)
 
Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan, Independent 15% (+3)
 
Mairead McGuinness, Fine Gael 13% (+2%) 
 
Marian Harkin, Ind 12% (-)
 
Pat 'The Cope' Gallagher, Fianna Fáil 10% (+1%)

Thomas Byrne, FF 9% (-7%)
 
Jim Higgins, FG 6% (-5%)
 
Lorraine Higgins, Labour 5% (+1%)
 
Rónán Mullen, Ind 5% (-2%)
 
Mark Dearey, Green Party 3% (+1%)
 
Mark Fitzsimons, Ind  1% (-2)
 
Ben Gilroy, Direct Democracy Ireland 1% (-)

TJ Fay, Ind 0% (-)
 
Cordelia Nic Fhearraigh, Fis Nua 0% (-)
 
The poll findings in the South constituency show that Fianna Fáil MEP Brian Crowley with 32% retains a massive lead over others.

But his running mate Kieran Hartley is polling at just 2%.

On the overall numbers the party would be well placed to challenge for two seats but this requires a massive challenge in vote management in the final week.

The overall findings are:

Brian Crowley, Fianna Fáil 32% (-4%)
 
Liadh Ní Riada, Sinn Féin 16% (+1%)
 
Sean Kelly, Fine Gael 15% (+3%)
 
Deirdre Clune, FG 10% (-2%)
 
Simon Harris, FG 9% (+2%)
 
Phil Prendergast, Labour 6% (+2%)
 
Diarmuid O'Flynn, Independent 4% (-3%)
 
Grace O'Sullivan, Green Party 4% (+3%)
 
Jillian Godsil, Ind 2% (-1%)
 
Kieran Hartley, FF 2% (-)
 
Jan Van de Ven, Direct Democracy Ireland 0% (-1%)

Richard Cahill, Ind 0% (-)
 
Theresa Heaney, Christian Democrats 0% (-)
 
Peter O'Loughlin, Ind  0% (-)
 
Donal O Riordain, Fis Nua 0% (-)
 
This poll is a snapshot of voting intentions among those sampled earlier this week. More polls are due and the picture could change in these.

A lot can also change by polling day on 23 May and final votes will also be shaped by the turnout in these elections.

Cliffhanger predicted for Dublin seat

The battle for the final seat in Dublin will be a cliff hanger based on the results in today’s Sunday Independent/Millward Brown poll.

It shows Sinn Féin’s Lynn Boylan out in front on 23% followed closely by Fine Gael’s Brian Hayes on 22%.

Six candidates from Brid Smith of People before Profit on 6% up to Nessa Childers Independent, on 13% are all grouped closely.

The rankings when the Don’t Knows are excluded are:

Lynn Boylan, Sinn Féin 23% (+3)

Brian Hayes, Fine Gael 22% (+7)

Nessa Childers, Independent 13% (-6)

Mary Fitzpatrick, Fianna Fáil 11% (-2)

Emer Costello, Labour 10% (-2)

Eamon Ryan, Green Party 7% (-4)

Paul Murphy, Socialist Party 7% (+3)

Brid Smith, People Before Profit 6% (+1)

Tom Darcy, Direct Democracy Ireland 1% (-)

Jim Tallon, Independent 0%

Raymond Whitehead, DDI 0%

Damon Wise, Fis Nua 0%

Keywords: elections, polls