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Irish summers set to get drier, but winters to be wetter

Summers are likely to be hotter and drier, while winter will be wetter and storms more intense
Summers are likely to be hotter and drier, while winter will be wetter and storms more intense

Annual average temperatures in Ireland could rise by between 1 and 1.7C between now and the middle of the century as a result of climate change, according to a new report funded by the Environmental Protection Agency.

The report also predicts that our warming climate could result in hot days in Ireland being as much as 0.7-2.6C warmer.

The largest warming increases will be seen in the east of Ireland.

The study also estimates that rainfall will decrease significantly during spring and summer, with heavy rainfall events expected to increase during winter and autumn by up to 20%.

The number of extended dry periods will increase substantially over the full year, and during autumn and winter, the report claims.

The research was carried out by Irish Centre for High End Computing and University College Dublin, as well as Met Éireann.

It comes as representatives of the Government and non-governmental organisations prepare to travel to Paris for the UN COP21 climate change talks next week.

The report found that the regularity with which storms take place could decrease, but when they do happen they will be more intense.

The number of frosty days could fall by more than half, the study found, and the growing season could lengthen by over 35 days per year.

And in a finding that will worry wind farm operators, the energy content of wind is projected to decrease during some seasons.

The findings were generated by high resolution regional climate modelling projections which are based on information provided by global climate models.

The simulations were run for a reference period between 1981 and 2000, and also for a future period between 2041 and 2060.

The difference between the two periods gives a measure of climate change.

Both a medium to low emission scenario and a high emission scenario were run.

"It important that we recognise the strategic and long term nature of the challenges Ireland faces in the coming decades," Laura Burke, Director General of the EPA, said in a statement. 

"We need to take effective and informed action. Changes to our climate are largely outside our control while others are for us to address and manage.

"Adapting to climate change and reducing the greenhouse gases emissions that are contributing to the problem of climate change are two such actions."

"The provision of information and analysis is a first step in meeting these challenges."

Meanwhile, the UN's Special Envoy on Climate Change has said she is relatively hopeful that an agreement can be reached at the upcoming climate talks in Paris.

Speaking on RTÉ’s Six One News, former president Mary Robinson said preparation for the Paris talks is much better than it was for the failed Copenhagen summit in 2009.

She said the French have given a lot of leadership and have laid the foundations for a multilayered agreement.

Mrs Robinson said she would like to see an agreement that would see a commitment to zero carbon emissions by 2050.

She said we probably will not get that, but added that some indication would be good.

She also said the agreement needs to have a five-yearly review mechanism.

She stressed the importance of putting in place a finance mechanism for poorer countries who say they want to move to renewable energy sources but cannot because they cannot afford it.

She said the EU commitment to a 40% reduction in emissions by 2030 is very significant.

But she said in Ireland it means we will have to do more to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels and also look at the emissions coming from agriculture.

Mrs Robinson said it is not all doom and gloom though and that she thinks the required changes can get us to a better place with better jobs, particularly in Ireland, with the high-tech sector.