Poll suggests support for SF & Independents has increased since 2009 local elections

Sunday 18 May 2014 10.15
The nationwide Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes poll of over 1,500 voters was conducted between 3 May and 14 May
The nationwide Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes poll of over 1,500 voters was conducted between 3 May and 14 May

A new opinion poll suggests that Sinn Féin, smaller parties and Independents are significantly increasing their support compared to the local elections in 2009.

The nationwide Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes poll of over 1,500 voters was conducted between 3 May and 14 May.  

This is a big sample base so the margin of error is plus or minus 2.6%.

Those surveyed were asked their voting intentions in the Local Elections next Friday and the findings compares that with the results of the 2009 Local Elections.

When the Don't Knows are excluded the results show that Fine Gael is at 25% - down seven percentage points on the party's result in 2009.

Support for Fianna Fáil is 22% down three percentage points; Labour is at 7%, down eight percentage points; Sinn Féin is at 17% an increase of ten percentage points, while Independents and Others are at 30% - up 13 percentage points.

Typically, pollsters rank the "state of parties" by asking people how they would vote if there was a General Election.

The results still broadly mirror the trends over many months in several polls. 

But there is a word of caution: the Don't Knows are running at one in four voters, quite high at this stage of a campaign.

Much can, and often does change in the run up to Election Day. And turnout on 23 May will also be crucial to the final results.

European election opinion poll - Midlands North West

Excluding "Don’t knows", Fine Gael’s Mairéad McGuinness is topping the poll at 21%.

Independent TD Luke 'Ming' Flanagan is in second place with 17% while, Sinn Féin’s Matt Carthy is in third place on 14%.

The other main candidates - Marian Harkin (Ind), Thomas Byrne (FF), Pat the Cope Gallagher (FF), Jim Higgins (FG)  Lorraine Higgins (Lab) and Rónán Mullen (Ind) are all running close to each other.

Result:

Mairéad McGuinness Fine Gael 21%; Luke 'Ming' Flanagan Independent 17%; Matt Carthy, Sinn Féin 14% and Marian Harkin Ind 12%.

Thomas Byrne Fianna Fáil 9%; Pat The Cope Gallagher Fianna Fáil 8%; Jim Higgins, Fine Gael 7%; Lorraine Higgins Labour 5%; Rónán Mullen Independent 5%; Mark Dearey, Green Party 1%; Ben Gilroy, Direct Democracy Ireland 1% ;TJ Fay Independent 0%; Mark Fitzsimons Independent 0% and Cordelia Nic Fhearraigh Independent 0%.

Dublin

In Dublin, the final result for the last seat suggests it could be a cliff hanger based on this poll. 

Sinn Féin’s Lynn Boylan heads the field at 19%, with Fine Gael’s Brian Hayes three points behind on 16%.

Result:

Lynn Boylan, SF 19%; Brian Hayes FG 16%; Mary Fitzpatrick FF 12%; Nessa Childers Ind 11%; Éamon Ryan, Green Party 11%.

Bríd Smith People Before Profit 10%; Paul Murphy Socialist 9%; Emer Costello Lab 7%; Jim Tallon Ind 3%; Raymond Whitehead DDI 1%; Damon Matthew Wise Fis Nua 1%; Thomas Darcy, DDI 0%.

South Constituency

The South constituency still shows Fianna Fáil’s Brian Crowley commanding a huge vote at 35%. Sinn Féin’s Liadh Ní Riada is in third place on 14%.

Fine Gael’s Sean Kelly retains an edge on his running mates, Deirdre Clune and Simon Harris, while Labour MEP Phil Prendergast is on 5%.

Result:

Brian Crowley FF 35%; Seán Kelly FG 17%; Liadh Ní Riada SF 14%; Deirdre Clune FG 10%; Simon Harris FG 8%; Phil Prendergast Lab 5%; Grace O'Sullivan, Green 3%; Richard Cahill, Ind 2%; Jillian Godsil, Ind 2%; Diarmuid O'Flynn, Ind 2%; Kieran Hartley, FF 1%; Theresa Heaney, Catholic Democrats 1%; Peter O'Loughlin 1% and Jan Van De Ven DDI 1%.

The undecided voters in each of the three constituencies is Dublin 27%, Midlands North West 23%, South 31%.

Local Elections

In a separate question on the local elections, those polled were asked "which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote in the local elections on 23 May?"

The plus and minus figures in the results below Indicate the rise or fall in that vote since the 2009 local elections.

The findings after the 24% don't know/will not vote figure is excluded:

Party May 2014 poll

Fine Gael 25% (-7)

Fianna Fail 22% (-3)

Labour 7% (-8)

Sinn Féin 17% (+10)

Independents/Others 30% (+13)

Results of Millward Brown poll for the Irish Independent here