A new report from the Economic and Social Research Institute says the European Union target for greenhouse gas emissions reductions by 2020 seems to be out of Ireland's reach.
The Energy and Environment Review 2010 also finds that Ireland may have to buy emission permits from other countries in order to meet its targets.
The review is the third in a series of reports by the ESRI on resource use and emissions to the environment.
It predicts wind power will account for 40% of power generation by 2020, replacing coal and peat.
After 2020, it says coal may well return to the fuel mix, which could mean an increase in carbon dioxide emissions.
Technology is being developed to capture and store CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, but the process has not yet been demonstrated.
Ireland is expected to meet its emission reduction obligations under the Kyoto Protocol because of the recession, but the ESRI says at this point, the EU target to cut emissions by 20% by the year 2020 seems to be out of Ireland's reach.
Ireland may have to import emission permits, which will effectively mean we will pay other EU countries to over-comply with the target to allow us to fall short.
