Ten counties, 14 candidates and one clear favourite to take a seat. That much we know for certain about the new four-seat European South constituency.
Stretching from Bray in Co Wicklow to Bray Head in Valentia, Co Kerry, this is a huge area but one candidate is again rising to the top of the opinion polls.
That is veteran Fianna Fáil MEP Brian Crowley who is facing into his 20th year in the European Parliament.
RTÉ's Micheál Lehane looks at the South constituency
Even though his support could potentially make up close to two quotas, it seems very unlikely his Waterford based running mate, Kieran Hartley, will benefit.
Once before the sometimes quirky workings of the PR-STV voting system saw a huge Bertie Ahern surplus help elect Cyprian Brady to the Dáil in 2007. No repeat is likely here though, with Brian Crowley at times appearing as an almost stand alone brand. Indeed his posters contain only a tiny mention of Fianna Fáil.
For Fine Gael there is potentially a greater prospect of winning a second seat. Sitting MEP and former GAA President, Sean Kelly, looks the most likely of the party’s candidates to get elected first.
But will one of Kelly’s two running mates, Cork Senator Deirdre Clune or young Wicklow TD Simon Harris make it to Brussels? Deirdre Clune argues that the large population in Cork gives her a good chance, while Simon Harris is one of the few big-name candidates from the east of the constituency.
Sinn Féin’s Liadh Ni Riada looks to be in a strong position to challenge for a seat.
Two early opinion polls estimated the party’s former Irish Language Officer’s share of the first preference vote at somewhere in the mid teens.
This alone may not elect the daughter of the late composer Seán O Riada , but there may well be enough transfers to see Sinn Féin win its first European seat in this part of the country.
The consistent support ratings for the party in national opinion polls over the last year should give them much confidence as polling day approaches.
Labour won a seat in the old South constituency last time. The man who won that went on to become a TD and then a Junior Minister. Alan Kelly’s replacement in 2011 is hoping her three years as an MEP will give her a chance to continue in that role.
But the odds and the polls seem to be against Phil Prendergast. True her support did almost double when she called on her party leader, Tánaiste Eamon Gilmore, to step down, but she needs that trend to continue if she is to stand any chance of winning a seat. Her party’s national standing could well make that very difficult, even if Phil Prendergast is casting herself in the role of Labour Party rebel.
There are three Independent candidates running in the South.
The most high profile is arguably sports journalist, Diarmuid O’Flynn.
He founded the anti-austerity “Ballyhea Says No” group which has led a vocal campaign against the terms of the EU/IMF bailout. Describing himself as “totally pro-Europe,” he wants Ireland to form alliances with other bailout countries.
He will hope the strong support for Independent politicians expressed in opinion polls nationally translates into a sufficient number of votes to put him in contention for a seat.
There was some surprise when Grace O’Sullivan rather than former Senator Dan Boyle was selected to run for the Green Party.
But the first time election candidate has won much praise from the party leadership for her environmental campaigning that dates back decades. The party will be hoping these elections can spark signs of a recovery after losing all its Dáil seats in 2011.
Also running in this constituency are: Jillian Godsil, Independent, Theresa Heaney, Catholic Democrats, Peter O’Loughlin, Independent, Donal O Riordáin, Fís Nua, Jan Van De Ven, Direct Democracy Ireland.
Fine Gael - Deirdre Clune
Elected to Seanad Éireann in April 2011. Former TD for the Cork South–Central constituency. First took office as TD in 1997 succeeding her father Peter Barry who was retiring.
Fianna Fáil - Brian Crowley
– Outgoing MEP. Appointed a Senator in 1993, he has been a member of the European Parliament since 1994, topping the poll on every occasion. Crowley is one of two Fianna Fáil candidates
Independent - Jillian Godsil
A first-time election candidate whose High Court action led to a Government change to the law preventing bankrupts from contesting Dáil and European elections. Godsil, whose house was repossessed in 2013, took the High Court action after she filed for, and was declared, bankrupt in February this year.
Fine Gael - Simon Harris
TD for Wicklow, Harris was elected to the 5 seat constituency on his first attempt in 2011. The youngest member of the present Dáil, this is his first time to contest a European election.
Elected to the Dáil in 2011 aged 24 and on his first attempt, he polled 8,726 first preferences (12.4%) in the Wicklow constituency
Fianna Fáil - Kieran Hartley
Waterford-based anti-pylon campaigner, Hartley joined Fianna Fáil in March this year. He is a first-time election candidate.
Fine Gael - Seán Kelly
A former President of the GAA, Kerry-based Kelly was elected to the European Parliament on his first attempt in 2009. Outgoing MEP for Ireland South. Elected to the European Parliament on his first attempt in 2009, securing the second of three seats with an 18.6% vote share.
Sinn Féin - Liadh Ní Riada
A member of Sinn Féin since 2011 and an Ard Comhairle member since 2013, Ní Riada is a first-time candidate for public office. Ní Riada is a daughter of the late composer, Seán Ó Riada.
Independent - Diarmuid O'Flynn
Author and Journalist, O’Flynn is the founder of the anti- austerity “Ballyhea Says No” campaign which emerged in protest at the terms of the EU/IMF bailout. A sports journalist with the Irish Examiner.
Green Party - Grace O'Sullivan
Waterford-based and a first-time election candidate, O’Sullivan is an environmental campaigner with ten years experience working on Greenpeace ships, including the Rainbow Warrior. She is also a former Irish surf champion.
Labour Party - Phil Prendergast
Co-opted as an MEP to replace Alan Kelly following his election to the Dáil in 2011. Prendergast joined the Labour Party in 2005, having previously been an Independent Dáil candidate and member of the Workers and Unemployed Action Group.
Direct Democracy - Jan van de Ven
Wicklow-based, Van De Ven is a founding member of both Direct Democracy Ireland and Democracy International.
A campaigner for Direct Democracy for a decade, Van De Ven says that Direct Democracy will give the Irish people the power ‘to push back through “citizen initiated referendum”
Fís Nua - Dónal Ó'Ríordáin
An engineer from Bandon in Cork, he is one of three Fís Nua candidates contesting the 2014 European elections.
The other two candidates are Damon Mathew Wise in Dublin and Cordelia Nic Fhearraigh in Midlands-North-West.
Catholic Democrats - Theresa Heaney
A housewife from Timoleague, Co. Cork, Heaney previously contested Dáil elections for Cork South West in 1997 and 2002. In 2002, standing as an Independent, she polled 748 first preference votes, a 1.9% share of the total.
Independent - Richard Cahill
Based in Sixmilebridge, Co. Clare, Cahill is a Volunteer Community worker and a first-time candidate. He is the only new candidate for the Clare area within the South constituency and made a late entry to the race, registering just five days before nominations closed.
Independent - Peter O'Loughlin
A first-time candidate and one of the founders of the National Independent Party, which launched in January 2014. Speaking to The Irish Times at the party’s launch in January 2014, O’Loughlin referred to the two policy priorities of the National Independent Party:
