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Enda Kenny - the great survivor

For the Taoiseach there are two major milestones next year
For the Taoiseach there are two major milestones next year

The final days of the last Dáil term witnessed the first signs of trouble in Fine Gael for Enda Kenny, just weeks after forming the Government.

As the new Dáil term beckons this week the Taoiseach has survived to fight another day, writes RTÉ's political reporter Brian Dowling.

But just how many days does the great survivor have?

It's only a few years ago since Mr Kenny routed the attempt to oust him spearheaded by Richard Bruton.

It's only a few months ago since Shane Ross, in the midst of negotiations on the formation of the government, described him as a "political corpse".

A latter-day political miracle witnessed the Taoiseach rise from his political death bed, in the best tradition of Tim Finnegan, to confound all and sundry.

Those now wishing to organise his political wake can cool their trotters for a little longer.

Depending on who you talk to in Fine Gael, the Taoiseach's political lifespan is: the end of this year; no later than next Easter; the summer recess next year, or even the budget in 2017.

Right now Mr Kenny has all the advantage.

There is huge strategic importance to getting this year's budget over the line.

If he can steer the Government through the budget, the Finance Bill and the Social Welfare Bill, he will almost certainly gain a safe passage into 2017.

Any moves to take the Taoiseach out in this phase come with huge risk – most notably the prospect of a winter or worse an election in the run-up to Christmas. Try explaining that on the doorsteps.

But the dynamic will change from January.

There are some things the Taoiseach can control; he is primarily responsible for managing the current Government arrangement. So it falls to him to carefully manage the rival leadership hopefuls in Fine Gael.

On the one hand, he needs to provide them with some sense their time will come in a relatively short term while on the other hand preventing mutiny among impatient backbenchers.

If that wasn't enough, he also has to keep the Independents well embedded in Government while the same time ensuring Fianna Fáil has enough to allow that party sustain the three-year deal.

There is plenty of scope there for one bad mistake to shorten his political lifeline.

While Micheál Martin and his colleagues will be in no rush to see Mr Kenny vacate the Taoiseach's office, others may not be so politically kind.

Barring any kind of unforeseen political whirlwind that ruins his tenure, he has a chance to shape his political exit.

For the Taoiseach there are two major milestones next year: A trip to the White House for the St Patrick's Day events with the new US president and the first anniversary of the formation of this Government on 6 May next.

If Mr Kenny can survive long enough to reach next May, he will have delivered a relatively stable Government and, significantly, put a lot of distance between the disastrous election results in February this year.

It would be unwise to underestimate his capacity to generate enough political goodwill among his party colleagues to enable him get that far.

But unless his new found mojo produces some spectacular gains for the Government, he will be pushing his luck if he shows no sign of going in early May 2017.

Reaching that milestone would give Mr Kenny an opportunity that few politicians at the top of the game get – the chance to quit on your own terms and timing.


By RTÉ Political Reporter Brian Dowling