Afghanistan is at a crossroads. NATO troop fatalities are at an all-time high. A new US General is taking charge at a time when the Taliban is expressing confidence in its superiority. The war is as unpopular in the US and UK as it has ever been.
Deputy Foreign Editor Anthony Murnane has been examining the situation.
It has been the worst month for NATO troops in the nine years of the war in Afghanistan.
100 soldiers died in violence in June. Figures for fatalities on the Afghan side are less clear, although they are well into the thousands.
Confident that they are winning the war, the Taliban says there is no question of entering any negotiations with NATO.
Why so confident? Well, death toll of US troops stands at 1,149, and the number of UK soldiers killed passed 300 last month.
Then there's what the Taliban read as a breakdown in the US military leadership in Afghanistan.
The past week saw General David Petraeus, who helped turn around the Iraq War, take over from General Stanley McCrystal after the Rolling Stone interview fiasco.
It was a remarkable read for two reasons - the indiscretion of a leading military chief and his aides, and the evident disharmony in the ranks with the way the mission is progressing.
After being given the backing of the Senate, General Petraeus set off immediately for Kabul.
We got some picture of the future military strategy when the General used a stopover in Brussels to confer with NATO allies.
He played down hopes of a quick turnaround and said the Taliban has been building momentum.
He said he would reassess restrictive battlefield rules that critics say put US units at unnecessary risk in an attempt to protect Afghan civilians.
It was clear from the Rolling Stone interview that that balancing act is angering troops on the ground.
They feel the efforts to win the hearts and minds of the Afghans are making them sitting targets.
Efforts to ensure the Afghans take security and administrative governance are proving difficult.
Washington has been involved in a very public tit-for-tat spat with Afghan President Hamid Karzai, whom it accused of tolerating government corruption.
Afghanistan ranked second from bottom in Transparency International's 2009 annual index of global corruption.
Relations were smoothed over during Mr Karzai's visit to Washington in May and the Obama administration is now making an effort to handle such matters in private.
Attorney General Eric Holder has been in Kabul in recent days to discuss tackling corruption and other law enforcement matters.
Republicans in the US see Gen Petraeus' appointment as a sign from Barack Obama that Washington was ready to wrap up the war by announcing a July 2011 date to start withdrawing US forces, based on conditions on the ground.
The key to withdrawal are those conditions.
However, based on the current conditions, July 2011 will be a highly optimistic date to begin a withdrawal from the troubled country.
