China is about to try to kick a 3 billion-a-day plastic bag habit. But breaking the addiction, in a bid to save energy and protect the environment, will be easier said than done.
This Sunday, the world's most populous nation will join a growing list, from Ireland to Bangladesh, that are aiming to change shoppers' habits when a ban on the production of plastic bags under 0.025mm thick comes into force.
Ultra-thin bags are the principal target of the crackdown because they are typically used once and then discarded, adding to waste in a country that is increasingly conscious of the air and water pollution caused by its breakneck economic growth.
Shopkeepers will also be barred from handing out free plastic carrier bags except for fresh and cooked foods. Those breaking the law face fines and could have their goods confiscated.
China consumes 37m barrels of what is now very expensive crude oil each year to churn out the 3 billion plastic bags that its 1.3bn people use on average each day, according to official figures.
Ma Zhanfeng, secretary-general of the China Plastics Processing Industry Association, expects the ban to bite.
'Domestic demand for plastic bags will drop drastically from 1.6m tonnes a year to around 1.1m tonnes," said Ma, who has nearly 20 years' experience in the industry.
Bag makers have already felt the pinch from the looming restrictions. Some have even been forced out of business.
But Ning Rongju with Friends of Nature, a local non-governmental organisation, says all will depend on whether the new rules are enforced, especially in cities such as Beijing, where demand for bags in the capital's many markets is huge.
'The execution and monitoring of the law will actually determine the future of plastic bags,' she said.
Xiao Ling, the mother of a 6-year-old boy, said her family was already in the habit of using nylon shopping bags. But she, too, was sceptical.
'Getting rid of all ultra-thin bags will take a long time,' she said while out shopping at a Wal-Mart supermarket in Beijing.
FINAL STRAW
For China's plastic processors, the curbs are the latest blow to a sector struggling with soaring raw material and labour costs, a rising exchange rate and an end to export tax rebates.
The plastic bag industry is highly segmented, with factories in almost every province.
One major centre is Taizhou, a city in southeastern Zhejiang province where more than 10,000 manufacturers of plastic products enjoy sales of 40bn yuan (€3.66bn) each year, according to the Taizhou Plastic Industry Association.
Chen Jiazeng, the group's director, admitted that 'small factories might ignore the rule and keep making ultra-thin bags' as long as they can make money.
The prospect that some underground manufacturers will turn a blind eye to the law is especially unsettling for smaller firms.
Taizhou Xinxing Plastic Packing Co Ltd, which employs 300 people and has annual sales of about 15 million yuan, mostly from plastic bags, is considering switching to other plastic goods.
'The new policy will make plastic bags even more expensive,' Su Xiaobing, the company's sales manager, explained. 'We won't have any price advantage then.'
Fear of illegal competition is shared by big manufacturers such as Huiqiang in central Henan province, whose plastic bags all conform with the new national standards.
A sales manager who gave only his surname, Xue, said his firm had no quarrel with the policy but was worried about how it would be implemented.
'We're afraid we'll see small underground plants continuing to make ultra-thin bags if there is demand for them,' Xue said. 'We risk losing our market share by following the rules.'
GLOBAL TREND
Ireland's success story with its plastic bag surcharge is rippling across the world.
Here is a list of other countries & continents that already restrict plastic shopping bags or plan to do so:
AFRICA -- Rwanda and Eritrea banned the bags outright, as has Somaliland, an autonomous region of Somalia. South Africa, Uganda and Kenya have minimum thickness rules, and Ethiopia, Ghana, Lesotho and Tanzania are considering similar measures.
AUSTRALIA -- Coles Bay in Tasmania became 'Australia's First Plastic Bag-Free Town' in April 2003. Dozens of others followed suit. In January 2008, the environment minister called for supermarkets to phase out use of the bags nationwide by the end of the year.
BANGLADESH -- The first large country to ban bags in 2002. Bangladesh blamed millions of discarded bags for blocking drains and contributing to floods that submerged much of the country in 1988.
BHUTAN -- The isolated Himalayan country banned plastic shopping bags, street advertising and tobacco in 2007, as part of its policy to foster 'Gross National Happiness'.
CHINA -- The ban on ultra-thin bags that goes into force on June 1 will cut pollution and save valuable oil resources, the State Council, or cabinet, says. In May 2007 Hong Kong proposed a 50 cent 'polluter pays' levy on plastic shopping bags.
ENGLAND -- In May 2007 the village of Modbury in south Devon became Europe's first plastic bag-free town, selling reuseable and biodegradable bags instead. London's 33 councils plan to ban ultra-thin bags from 2009 and tax others.
FRANCE -- In 2005, French lawmakers voted to ban non-biodegradable plastic bags by 2010. The French island of Corsica became the first to ban plastic bags in large stores in 1999.
INDIA -- The western state of Maharashtra banned the manufacture, sale and use of plastic bags in August 2005, after claims that they choked drains during monsoon rains. Other states banned ultra-thin bags to cut pollution and deaths of cattle, sacred to Hindus, which eat them.
IRELAND -- Our plastic bag tax was passed in 2002. The tax created an initial 90% drop in bag use, according to the Environment Ministry, though usage gradually rebounded.
ITALY -- Outright ban to be introduced from 2010.
TAIWAN -- A partial ban in 2003 phased out free bags in department stores and supermarkets and disposable plastic plates, cups and cutlery from fast food outlets. Most stores charge people who don't bring their own T$1 (€0.02).
UNITED STATES -- San Francisco became the first and only U.S. city to outlaw plastic grocery bags in April 2008. The ban is limited to large supermarkets.
The state of New Jersey is mulling phasing them out by 2010.
In January 2008 New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg signed a bill forcing large retailers to set up plastic bag recycling programmes and to make recycled bags available.
