Ireland's climate could suffer the effects of dangerous climate change if global temperatures increase by more than 2%, an environmental report has forecast.
The report from the Environmental Protection Agency, prepared by climate experts at the National University of Ireland in Maynooth, is the first time the Irish implications of such a temperature increase have been directly addressed.
The EU-agreed position is that if world temperatures increase by 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, it will probably trigger what is known as 'dangerous climate change' - meaning significant, if not irreversible, impacts.
Using data from three global climate models, the report estimates that rising summer temperatures could lead to a drop in rainfall of up to 25% with a major impact on water resources, particularly for Dublin.
In winter, rainfall could increase by 17%, possibly leading to significant storm surges and flooding as well as increased coastal erosion.
It is estimated that as much as 300sq.km of land would have more than a 50% chance of being threatened.
Unless action is taken to reduce greenhouse gases, which are blamed for rising temperatures, the report's lead author suggests the critical two degree limit could be exceeded by as early as 2040.
The report concludes that Ireland needs to meet its commitments in reducing greenhouse gases to maintain solidarity - and credibility - with the international community.
Responding to the report, the Minister for the Environment, Dick Roche, said it left no doubt about the potential consequences of not taking steps quickly to stabilise greenhouse gas emissions.
He added that the report was perfectly right in pointing out that a solution could only be reached through international co-operation.
