Analysis: the PSNI data breach has focused attention again on dissident republican groups who are still operating in Northern Ireland
Being a member of the police is a difficult job in any post-conflict society and it has always been particularly dangerous in Northern Ireland. The first fatal shooting of a PSNI officer occurred in March 2009 in Craigavon, Co Armagh, when a Continuity IRA (CIRA) unit in North Armagh killed Constable Stephen Carroll. CIRA is one of the militant Republican groups opposed to the Good Friday Agreement. In their latest attempt to kill a PSNI member, the so-called New IRA (NIRA) shot Detective Chief Inspector John Caldwell outside a soccer ground in February 2023 in Omagh, Co Tyrone.
Earlier this month, the PSNI confirmed that a major data breach had compromised the personal and employment details of thousands of PSNI officers and civilian staff. Hours after Chief Constable Simon Byrne announced that the data was "in the possession of dissident republicans", a first list with information apparently from the breach was published by them. Four pages appeared on a wall in west Belfast on August 14th, including around 80 names and other personal information.
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From RTÉ Radio 1's Morning Ireland, RTÉ Northern Editor Vincent Kearney discusses claims by dissident republicans to have possession of information from the PSNI data breach
In the following days, additional threats appeared on walls around Belfast. Graffiti on Stewardstown Road on the western outskirts of Belfast read: "RUC beware – see you soon – IRA". The Royal Ulster Constabulary is the predecessor of the PSNI and republicans often still refer to the PSNI as "RUC". A target cross follows the letters IRA.
In Belfast, where most of the threats appeared, the largest militant republican group is ONH which stands for Óglaigh na hÉireann. ONH was formed in the late 2000s when former members of the Real IRA around former IRA quartermaster Michael McKevitt merged with disillusioned members of the IRA who disagreed with the 2005 decommissioning of weapons and the recognition of the PSNI by Sinn Féin in 2007. Its first Chief-of-Staff was former IRA member and RIRA co-founder Seamus McGrane.
It was particularly active and showed sophisticated bomb-making skills during its first decade. In one of the ONH attacks, PSNI officer Peadar Heffron lost his right leg in an under-car bomb in January 2010. However, internal factionalism and splits lead to the organisation's downfall. Riddled with infighting, ONH announced it was ceasing paramilitary action in January 2018. In a statement, it declared: "the leadership of Óglaigh na hÉireann are announcing that with immediate effect we will suspend all armed actions against the British state."
But this statement did not mark the end of the organisation. Over the following four years, ONH reorganised and reappeared in public at Easter 2022 in Belfast. At a commemoration in Milltown Cemetery organised by political organisation Republican Network for Unity, four masked men belonging to ONH announced: "Over the past number of years, we have restructured and rearmed." Two of the four men had newly acquired semi-automatic guns on display as proof of their rearmament. In an interview with a member of the organisation then, I was informed that "these are brand-new weapons that were only recently imported to Ireland".
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From RTÉ Radio 1's Morning Ireland, Northern Editor of the Irish Times Freya McClements on the ramifications of the PSNI data breach
The display of these semi-automatic weapons marks a significant departure for Republicanism and the security threat level in Northern Ireland. The guns, which resemble conventional FGC-9s, are physible, 3D-printable semi-automatic pistol calibre carbines. While some arms experts maintained that this was the first time this kind of 3D-printed gun was seen in the hand of paramilitary organisations in Europe, this analysis does not paint the whole picture. These are, indeed, previously unknown modifications of the FGC-9 and FCG-22 models, not printed on the island of Ireland but imported from a Southeastern European country. They have since also appeared in other parts of Europe.
If true, it's clear ONH now has the resources and logistics to import modern weaponry to Ireland. All other dissident Republicans could not do so and primarily relied on old IRA stocks from the Lybian shipments in the 1980s for previous campaigns. Several attempts to import weapons from the Balkans, Slovakia and Lithuania have failed since the 1990s.
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From RTÉ Upfront, Katie Hannon speaks to Dr Aaron Edwards about the New IRA and other dissident republican groups
ONH confirmed the willingness to use these weapons in their Easter 2022 statement: "a number of former members, some driven by ego, some were British agents, attempted the usurpation of our organisation, and we took lethal actions against them."
Since their reorganisation after the ceasefire statement in January 2018, ONH has emerged as a well-organised, well-equipped and disciplined armed Republican organisation in Belfast and its surroundings which operates its own intelligence unit. In an interview with German newspaper ND, one ONH member told me that their members were armed in the area during interface riots in July 2022 "to protect Catholic areas from potential attacks from Loyalists". He said "our contacts on the Shankill Road had information that Loyalists were trying to use these riots to stage an attack on Catholics." The truth of this claim cannot be verified.
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From RTÉ Radio 1's Morning Ireland, Dr Marisa McGlinchey from Coventry University on the threat posed by dissident republicans in Northern Ireland
It's a significant cause of concern that this organisation has possessed some, most or even all of the personal data of PSNI officers and civilian employers since last week. Nonetheless, there is currently no indication that ONH will end their ceasefire: "The ceasefire and the statement from January 2018 are intact", a leading ONH member responded to my query earlier this year: "It is a ceasefire, not a cessation", they added, however.
While an end to the ONH ceasefire is doubtful, further use of their newly acquired arsenal cannot be ruled out, as the organisation's recent history has shown. Other dissident Republican organisations still consider police officers as targets. Groups like NIRA, CIRA and Arms na Poblachta (ANP) might be small and inexperienced, but they have never announced a ceasefire. We can also be sure that the ONH is probabl not the only armed group possessing data from the PSNI.
Dr. Dieter Reinisch is the author of Learning behind bars: How IRA prisoners shaped the peace process in Ireland (University of Toronto Press, 2022) and Irish Republican Counterpublic: Armed Struggle and the Construction of a Radical Nationalist Community in Northern Ireland, 1969-1998 (Routledge, 2023, with Anne Kane).
The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ
