Opinion: the loyalist influence on unionist parties has pushed the DUP towards disrupting any political progress in Northern Ireland
Northern Ireland stumbles through yet another political crisis. After threatening to leave the Northern Ireland Executive over the protocol that ensures the continuance of a frictionless border between Northern Ireland and the Republic since September, DUP First Minister Paul Givan resigned earlier this month. In his resignation speech, he said that "the delicate balance created by the Belfast and St Andrew's Agreements has been impacted by the agreement made by the United Kingdom and the European Union which created the Northern Ireland Protocol". A day earlier, DUP Agriculture minister Edwin Poots ordered officials to halt post-Brexit checks on goods arriving from Great Britain.
Many observers interpreted the move by the DUP as an attempt to win back support from the pro-Brexit electorate fiercely opposed to any Irish sea border. Last Friday night in Markethill, Co Armagh, thousands protested against what they see as the "grave threat’ posed by NI Protocol. When DUP MP Sammy Wilson took to the stage, sections of the crowd booed.
We need your consent to load this rte-player contentWe use rte-player to manage extra content that can set cookies on your device and collect data about your activity. Please review their details and accept them to load the content.Manage Preferences
From RTÉ Radio 1's Today With Claire Byrne, Fine Gael TD Neale Richmond and DUP MP Sammy Wilson discuss the Northern ireland Protocol
The pressure on the DUP has also been reflected in the January polls. The LucidTalk poll for the Belfast Telegraph had Sinn Féin at 25%, well ahead of the DUP with only 17%. There is even a tiny possibility that the DUP could finish up behind the UUP, Alliance Party or even TUV in the May elections.
To turn the tide, the DUP aims to make Northern Ireland ungovernable – until the May elections or beyond. Loyalist paramilitaries have played a crucial role in developing this strategy. However, while public attention is focused on so-called dissident republicans who remain committed to the armed struggle, loyalist paramilitaries draw much less media attention. This is odd considering that loyalist paramilitaries have an estimated 12,500 members, while militant republicans have several hundred members by contrast.
The threat from loyalist violence has increased since Brexit. Since the last UK elections, mainstream unionist parties are paying heed to loyalist anger over Brexit and concern about a border poll. A year ago, the DUP met the Loyalist Community Council (LCC), which was formed in 2015 to represent the UDA, UVF and Red Hand Commando. These loyalists paramilitaries were responsible for over 1,000 deaths during the Northern Ireland conflict. Less than a week after the meeting with the DUP, the LCC sent a letter to Boris Johnson withdrawing support for the Good Friday Agreement.
We need your consent to load this rte-player contentWe use rte-player to manage extra content that can set cookies on your device and collect data about your activity. Please review their details and accept them to load the content.Manage Preferences
From RTÉ Radio 1's Today With Claire Byrne, Belfast Telegraph journalist Donna Deeney on the loyalist violence in April 2021
That April, loyalists orchestrated several nights of "recreational rioting" on interfaces in Belfast. In an interview with the author for Austrian weekly Profil, academic Aaron Edwards warned of a new wave of loyalist violence by younger and more radical dissident loyalists who organise increasingly independent of the LCC. By so doing, these grassroots loyalists put pressure on the LCC leadership and unionist parties.
Despite some chest-beating from loyalist spokespersons, last summer's marching season remained calm. However, signs of renewed violence surfaced in November. A previously unknown Protestant Action Force (PAF) announced the "start of a campaign against the Northern Ireland Protocol" by hijacking a Translink bus in Newtownards. PAF was a cover name used by the UVF in 1974 and 1975. Less than a week later, the Progressive Unionist Party, widely considered the political wing of the UVF, announced that it could 'no longer back Good Friday Agreement".
We need your consent to load this rte-player contentWe use rte-player to manage extra content that can set cookies on your device and collect data about your activity. Please review their details and accept them to load the content.Manage Preferences
From RTÉ Archives, Póilín Ní Chiaráin reports for RTÉ News on the Protestant Action Force's shooting of a Catholic man in Belfast in July 1986
During autumn and winter, pressure increased on the DUP while Sinn Féin extended their lead in the polls in Belfast and Dublin. Phoenix magazine reported a meeting of DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson and representatives of loyalist paramilitaries on January 28th, while the Irish News reported a meeting between the DUP and the LCC in an east Belfast community centre on January 31st. Reports suggest that the LCC demanded the DUP end the Northern Ireland Executive.
UK Brexit negotiator Liz Truss visited Belfast during the same week and met Orange Order grand secretary Rev. Mervyn Gibson, but not representatives from SDLP, Alliance or UUP. Days later, Gibson told BBC Radio Ulster that "there should be no Executive in place for 'as long as it takes’ in order to remove key aspects of the Northern Ireland Protocol". In January, the Orange Order had collected over 50,000 signatures against the protocol.
Less than a week after meeting the LCC, agriculture minister Poots ordered a halt to post-Brexit checks, Givan resigned as First Minister of Northern Ireland, and DUP leader Donaldson warned that DUP would not return to the executive as long as the protocol is in place. Back in autumn, unionist leaders had already announced plans to refuse support for a Sinn Féin First Minister after the May elections.
We need your consent to load this YouTube contentWe use YouTube to manage extra content that can set cookies on your device and collect data about your activity. Please review their details and accept them to load the content.Manage Preferences
From DUP, Ian Paisley hears evidence about the Northern Ireland Protocol from the Loyalist Communities Council during a hearing of the House of Commons' Northern Ireland Affairs Committee
There is no indication that the loyalist influence on mainstream unionist parties will vanish any time soon. On the contrary, the outlook for Northern Ireland is bleak. The most likely scenario is that Sinn Féin will be the strongest party after the May elections. Moreover, it is not beyond imagination that Sinn Féin will also win the next elections in the Republic of Ireland. Such a scenario will intensify calls for a reunification referendum and further radicalise unionists and loyalists who already see the Brexit protocol as a threat to the Union.
However, Northern Ireland’s unionists are steadily losing power whether or when London calls a referendum. The fading influence is not caused by the protocol, but a growing cultural Catholic majority. In a recent talk at NUI Galway, Prof. Brendan O'Leary stressed that cultural Catholics will dominate every single age group in Northern Ireland by 2030. Moreover, Brexit gave liberal, educated Northerners the only chance to return to the EU through a united Ireland.
Unionists fear this development, and loyalists will not accept it – this will potentially lead to growing dissatisfaction with the post-GFA-settlement and radicalisation among loyalists. The loyalist influence on unionist parties pushed the DUP towards a strategy to disrupt any political progress in Northern Ireland. Most unionists had hoped that Brexit would strengthen the Union, but it has ultimately weakened the Union and made Irish reunification likelier. The future challenges for Dublin, Belfast and London will be to take the loyalist paramilitaries with them on this journey.
The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ
