45,000 more people were working in the economy at the end of June but unemployment has been revised upwards to 5.3%. Confused?
The number of people at work is a key measurement of how our economy is doing.
Every three months the Central Statistics Office gives us the results of their Labour Force Survey. Over 14,000 households are surveyed, so it's pretty extensive.
But the Labour Force Survey is also a relatively new statistical series. It’s been in use now for just two years.
That’s not a long time for the statistical magic to work smoothly. So, to employ a non-technical term, the results are still a bit 'bumpy'. One very well known economist described the numbers today as being like a ‘yo-yo’. Indeed.
The good yo-yo news is there were 45,000 more people in employment here at the end of June compared to a year ago. And, there are more people in employment now than at the height of the boom in 2007.
However, the bad yo-yo revealed a reduction in the numbers employed in the months from March to June. The numbers in employment decreased by 20,900 in those three months compared to the first three months of 2019.
Add in some statistical adjustments known as 'seasonal factors' and it has led the CSO to revise upwards its latest unemployment rate estimate for July from 4.6% to 5.3%.
That’s not an insignificant adjustment. What does it mean?
Does it mean we were overly enthusiastic over how many jobs were actually being created in the economy in the early part of this year? Is it just the swings and roundabouts of capturing a picture of an economy in flux?
Overall, the economy is still in a good place when it comes to jobs. But the uncertainty over where exactly things stand will only add another layer of uncertainty for the Minister for Finance to consider in framing his October Budget.
Other figures out today reveal a much clearer trend: Ireland's population is continuing to rise.
More people are coming to live here and more babies are being born.
A more-or-less even split between migration and babies saw the population rise by 64,500 to 4.92 million in the year to April.
Dublin accounts for 28.4% of the population with 1.4 million people.
And there’s still a lot of Irish people coming and going. Of the 88,600 people who immigrated to Ireland over the time period, just under 27,000 or 30.4% were returning Irish nationals. Of those leaving the country, 52.8% were Irish nationals.
It’s also noteworthy that since 2015, there have been more people moving here from the UK than heading in the opposite direction. In the year to April, 19,700 people from the UK moved here compared to 11,600 from Ireland who moved there.
As Brexit looms larger, that’s a figure that will be interesting to watch.
