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Election set to deliver painful choices for Labour

Opinions differ within Labour on what the party should do after the election
Opinions differ within Labour on what the party should do after the election

After winning 37 seats five years ago, all forecasts and predictions point to numerous Labour seat losses in Election 2016.

In light of that, RTÉ's Mícheál Lehane and Conor McMorrow ask: is there is a point when a depleted Labour Party should reconsider going into government?

A number of senior Labour Party figures have indicated the party needs to win "a critical mass" of TDs before it can realistically return to government. There is a school of thought that a vastly depleted Labour Party would be "eaten up" in coalition if it did not have over 15 TDs after this election.

Speaking earlier this week on RTÉ’s Today with Sean O’Rourke, Minister for the Environment Alan Kelly said: "I believe that if you are going into government, you have to have a critical mass to be able to influence the government."

But opinions already vary. A former general secretary of the party has gone so far as to say the Labour Party mainly followed "a Fine Gael agenda" in this Government and this is "not what it was elected for".

Others argue that Labour put the country first in 2011 and now must put the party first.

Most seem wary of any government relying on independents. But with its pre-election conference taking place this weekend, will Labour ultimately decide to borrow a phrase from one of their political foes, that ‘your worst day in government is better than your best in opposition’?

Here are the views from a diverse range of Labour Party figures

Ruairi Quinn, TD (retiring) and former party leader

"I'm not going to make a prediction. Nobody has a clue what a critical mass would be. This is because there is now a different political landscape. In all previous elections where Labour and Fine Gael were seeking re-election there was an alternative.

"Whatever you thought of them - you could look across at a first division team filled with former ministers, including finance ones. Usually they were only about a dozen seats short.

"None of that is the case this time. That is why everything is different. We want to go back into government. Most of the others don't want to be in government with one another."

Robert Dowds, TD (retiring)

"I think we would need 15 seats or more to return to government. I don't think we should go into government if Labour and Fine Gael between them don't have an overall majority.

"If you have very few seats you become even more vulnerable and you have less clout in government. We're the best party at putting the country first but we have to look after ourselves as well and those who we seek to represent.

"What we have to focus on during the campaign is the important role Labour has played over the last five years. There is a lot of social legislation we can point to that would not have happened without the Labour Party in government."

Ray Kavanagh, former Labour Party general secretary

"The party needs to identify its principles, restore its membership, organisation and internal democracy. It played a major role in restoring economic independence but mainly on a Fine Gael agenda, not what it was elected for.

"In government with 15 seats or less it cannot reform itself as its leadership would be engrossed in day-to-day departmental management.

"Furthermore it would have even less influence. The problems facing the party include formulating economic policies in a climate change era and social policies following the completion of the liberal agenda."

Councillor Niall McNelis, Galway city

"I think we should go back into government no matter what the result. There is no point sitting on the sidelines throwing snowballs. I would prefer to have a Labour person in there than Michael Lowry.

"We are going to have to rebuild the party anyway but that could be done from within government. We could be the left-wing version of the PDs and dictate policy on things like the minimum wage and the Eighth Amendment.

"I think we will keep a lot more seats than some people are predicting, particularly in four and five seat constituencies. We are more transfer friendly."

Barry Desmond (former Labour TD and minister)

"It depends on the arithmetic after the election. Anybody who tries to put permutations on this before the election is whistling into the dark. The outcome of the election depends entirely on the result.

"The night the PDs and Fianna Fáil were emerging as possible coalition partners I was on RTÉ television that night with Brian Farrell and I was derided for suggesting that this might be a possibility and it was regarded as an outrageous outcome. Then four or five days later talks started.

"There is no point putting arithmetic on this now. What's the definition of ‘a critical mass’ anyway?"

Senator Marie Moloney, Kerry

"I think it's important to have a Labour input in government. But I would not like to see us in a government relying on independents. It would not last and you would be very worried around budget time.

"I believe the last thing the country needs is another election soon after this one. So I would prefer a government with ourselves, Fine Gael and even a small third party.

"I would hope that we could win 20 seats on a good day and 15 on a bad day. You have to be realistic and admit that some seats were only on loan to us the last time.

"Of course it's easier to rebuild a party when you are in opposition. There you have all the answers but I think there is a hypocrisy in that approach. History will show that we made the right decisions at the helm. We put the country first at a very difficult time."

Phil Prendergast, former Labour MEP for Ireland South

"There is still a job of work to be done in government. It is probably easy to sit on the sidelines and be negative in opposition but if you have less than 15 TDS and you have the opportunity of going into government I believe that should be taken as it offers an opportunity of keeping the Labour Party agenda alive.

"If the party does not have a critical mass of TDs that would show that it needs to reconnect with people.

"From my experience of the local and European elections in 2014 there were a lot of people at the Labour Party grassroots level, people who had a lot of experience, who were wiped out.

"It is better to be in government. It is easier to be critical from opposition but to really have an effect you need to be in government."

Senator Denis Landy, Tipperary

"It's far too early to comment on that. I think we will have 15 seats. We will have to wait until after the election to see how the rest of seats pan out before we would make a decision on that."


By Mícheál Lehane and Conor McMorrow

Read more from Mícheál Lehane here
Read more from Conor McMorrow here