Analysis: there's likely to be much more fallout from the ongoing high-profile pursuit of Kinahan crime gang members in Ireland and abroad
Despite the dismantling of certain high profile groups, the well documented policing of organised crime groups shows that opportunists are just waiting in the wings to fill any vacuums which are created. Historical examples of targeted policing operations, such as that by the New York Police Department against the Italian mafia in the 1980s, are often lauded as success, but are seldom as effective as portrayed.
However, we rarely see a complete demise of a group as a result of this, but rather an evolution of actors and activities. While the NYPD's efforts negatively impacted the Italian mafia, many other groups continued.
Irish gangs were one such group who maximised this opportunity. As a result, a tactical approach by the An Garda Síochana, within their operations, to reduce the numbers capable of stepping up has merit. This method was adopted in the aftermath of the Regency Hotel shooting and subsequent operations against the Kinahan gang. In their response, gardaí targeted broadly organised crime networks, including some not directly involved in the shooting, and went after middle and senior level members. This approach is effective short term because it makes it complicated for the group to maintain business continuity and succession planning.
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From RTÉ News, Justin Kelly, Assistant Commissioner, head of the Garda's Drugs and Organised Crime Unit, tells RTÉ Crime Correspondent Paul Reynolds that senior Kinahan gang members will be brought to justice
However, the approach is not without its limitations as the effectiveness reduces over time if it does not dismantle the leadership. Lower-level group members can position themselves favourably to step up and prove themselves capable of taking over. Sometimes, they may start their own groups. This changes the landscape significantly, because these new leaders and groups do not always have the level of discipline, trust and loyalty as more established groups. As a result, it often has a destabilising effect, which neither the crime groups nor the police like.
This approach was viewed as moderately successful, evidenced by the frequency of arrests, seizures and convictions since the Regency attack. However, the fact that the leadership of the Kinahan group was based abroad made it difficult to continue up the chain. Getting international cooperation to expand a domestic operation at the level required to dismantle such groups is difficult given the often low levels of mutual legal assistance and lack of extradition agreements between some nations.
A successful operation like this requires a collective effort, necessitating nations and law enforcement agencies to work together. This calls for shared priorities, putting vested interests aside and, sometimes, for adversaries to collaborate. This was noticeable in Operation Shovel, where there was a lack of shared priorities between the Garda and the Spanish authorities, which limited its effectiveness.
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From RTÉ News in Oct 2022, CAB granted order to seize Kinahan-controlled property
The gardaí appear to have learned from this. In 2021/2022, they began working strategically with key US and UK partners with shared priorities in a joint operation targeting the Kinahan gang. These were partners with the required capacity, resources, commitment and especially shared trust, a key ingredient of success.
Such operations take time and often require a legal framework to be most effective in terms of sharing evidence, taking action in other jurisdictions and seizing assets. Once established, though, they can encourage other nations to support these operations, thus making the world a smaller place for these groups.
Successful crime groups will always find hospitable locations to continue their business - this is a key element of their success. These gangs are often agile, have a large network, are risk tolerant, and act like entrepreneurs by being ready to take advantage of states and/or individuals who may be attracted by their assets.
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From RTÉ 2fm's Game On in 2020, a look at Daniel Kinahan's influence in the world of boxing with RTÉ Crime Correspondent Paul Reynolds and The42.ie boxing journalist Gavan Casey
However, such groups often lose some of their agility the bigger they get. This is most noticeably when their activities enter the legal world and they attempt to clean or hide some of their ill-gotten gains, something they cannot do without the tacit support of those in professional positions. This phase of their endeavours often exposes them to external attention. We saw this with Daniel Kinahan, who takes a more active front facing role, unlike his father, Christy Senior, who took a more backseat role in much of his business interests, often staying under the radar.
So, what is next for the Kinahan group and the police who continue to target them? The group is likely to have been shaken by the announcement of the joint operation. If nothing else, a reward of $5 million has real potential to test loyalties. Loyalty is a much-touted necessity in the organised crime world, but something that even in the best of times cannot be taken for granted.
After the initial shock, some gangs will probably put pressure on the Kinahans to maximise and expose their vulnerability, while others may have become closer. Both cohorts are likely to be proactively working with the group to optimise the advantage of their potential demise. In response, the Kinahans will likely test their allegiances, while also taking measures to mitigate risk by dispersing their criminal gains into different portfolios to avoid the new seizure laws.
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From RTÉ Radio 1's Morning Ireland, 600 people have now been prevented from entering the US due to connections to the Kinahan organised crime gang
These responses are creating an environment that means the Kinahan group is unlikely to disappear even if the leadership are arrested. In this situation, it will gain new leadership, or we may see a split, which in turn could cause tensions, as they all try to find their niche.
In this context, the position the Kinahan gang holds on the world stage is likely to be negatively impacted, but that is not expected to significantly impact the global landscape of organised crime threat actors considerably. For any emerging groups post leadership demise, moving from this international positioning may be helpful to taking them out of the spotlight so they can regroup.
In this changing landscape, it is imperative that policing organisations remain proactive in identifying the opportunities that may emerge from their operations and the vacuum created. Police need to be supported by efficient, accessible and transparent criminal justice systems and, where necessary, civil and regulatory strategies. The world is unlikely to be ever free of organised crime, so policing operations need to evolve and stay on pace, maintaining pressure, while others work to address the often-deep rooted factors influencing the existence of such groups.
The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ
