We should have known better.
Surveying the scene ahead of last week's hurling championship throw-in, most observers not unreasonably suggested that the three teams to come out of the southern province would be Limerick, the All-Ireland champions, Cork, last year's runners-up, and Waterford, the form team of the league.
But Munster is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside a sliotar.
The Déise are still well-placed to progress - despite losing to Limerick again last night - but Tipperary's better than expected showing against Waterford and Cork's limp display against the champions have scattered the tea leaves.
Clare and Tipp will meet today thinking that Cork, at least, are now beatable. This game, Clare's first in the round-robin, could be both side's best shot at reaching an All-Ireland quarter-final.
"There's probably a sense now that third is up for grabs and the winner of this game will have a real chance," agrees Darach Honan, a goalscorer when Clare last lifted Liam MacCarthy in 2013.
"Tipp surprised me, even though I know they have plenty of good players. The likes of Jason Forde are still top-class.
"The pitch in Waterford might have helped them. Waterford are so athletic that they maybe excel a bit more in open space."
The Banner's dramatic final-round win in in 2018 was reverentially reported as their first against Tipperary in championship in Thurles in over 90 years. True, but most of the previous meetings had come at neutral venues. The more significant stat was that it was the first time they had beaten their opponents in the top competition since 2003.
"Semple is one of the stadiums that wouldn’t have as much of a home advantage to it because every team plays there," suggests Honan.
"Obviously there will be a big Tipp crowd there as well but Clare are well used to playing there so it shouldn’t affect them too badly."
Len Gaynor won three All-Ireland titles as a player with the Premier County and went on to manage both them and the Banner.
The Kilruane MacDonaghs man was over Clare from 1990-94, with Ger Loughnane as a selector, but then lost out to his former assistant as Tipperary boss in the 1997 All-Ireland final.
He is more optimistic about his native county's chances after they ran Waterford close last weekend but still expects a tough test today.
"Tipperary surprised us really," he told RTÉ Sport. "We didn't know how they were going to go. It’s a new-ish team and Waterford are a fairly seasoned team at this stage. So we were a bit doubtful.
"They proved us all wrong – played really well and could have won the match. They'll have to improve but they will take confidence that they did play so well.
"Any team trained by Brian Lohan will be very competitive. I think the Thurles pitch will suit them. They’ll be very fit, strong and agile.
"They haven’t had a match yet, Tipp have the advantage of having a game. But you couldn’t really call it. I think it’ll be a great match.
"If you have two matches won you’re going to be in business. Cork and Tipp have been beaten once and need to get back on track. There’s no room for mistakes at this stage."
Clare were unlucky not to reach the All-Ireland final in 2018 under joint bosses Donal Moloney and Gerry O'Connor but failed to make it out of Munster the following year.
Lohan took over for 2020 and though he has had to deal with Covid disruption and the loss of key men the facts are that Clare were well beaten in a quarter-final by Waterford in his first year and didn't get that far in 2021.
Honan, who retired in 2017, admits that they have so far failed to realise the promise of 2018 but believes there were definite signs of improvement last year.
For a team previously so reliant on the genius of Tony Kelly, the return of Shane O'Donnell (named among the subs) and 2018 championship top-scorer Peter Duggan could be pivotal, along with the intriguing decision to reposition former All-Star full-forward John Conlon to centre-back.
"Last year I thought we were unlucky," says Honan. "Against Tipp, that [penalty and sin-bin] call by James Owens was so bad and it changed the whole game. I do think Clare would have gone on to win that day if it wasn't for that.
"I thought Cork were the better team last year [in the qualifiers] but there was a glorious chance of winning it at the end. So they weren't a millions miles away from having a decent year. Though I don’t think they would have troubled Limerick.
"It's great to see Shane back particularly as he had a tough time with the concussion issues. Hopefully things go well for him.
"2018 was such a good year and Clare went away a bit since. Peter was a part of that because he had a huge year in 2018 but then emigrated for a while. He's a big powerful man and will be a huge addition to the team.
"I think John's best position is in the forwards but he’s going to be six for the year I’d imagine. Lohan was trying to find a six and thinks he needs him in the backs."
Aidan McCarthy was sin-binned for this challenge and a penalty was also given in the crucial moment in this game. Did you agree with the decision? pic.twitter.com/rxa0JAdwCd
— The Sunday Game (@TheSundayGame) July 4, 2021
Wexford whistler Owens was at the centre of huge controversy in this fixture last year for his decision to sin-bin Clare's Aidan McCarthy and award a penalty for taking Jake Morris out near the sideline.
The GAA subsequently modified the (characteristically vague) rule on goal-scoring opportunities to make it less open to interpretation but Owens has been appointed to referee the two sides again today, a decision Honan finds "a bit crazy really. It doesn’t make sense".
Another subplot is the absence of Tipp coach Tommy Dunne, who was sent off for a heated half-time debate with Johnny Murphy last weekend. He has been slapped with a proposed 12-week ban, though Tipperary are believed to be confident that will be reduced to four on appeal.
"He's an integral part of their set-up so it won't do them any favours but the lads on the field will just have to get on with it," says Honan.
"I don’t think it has a huge impact. In my days playing, I was never thinking I’d play a bit better with a certain person on the sideline. Once you go out onto the field you have to look after yourself."
It might be a rare year when Tipperary supporters settle for evolution rather than contention but will Clare fans now expect Lohan's team to deliver?
"Clare are very good and hard to beat since Brian Lohan took them over," says Gaynor. "They have been trying to rebuild but he has brought a lot of positive stuff to their play. I expect a big run from Clare this year if they get a chance at all."
Honan thinks that "Anything less than [qualification] and he [Lohan] will be very annoyed.
"Outside of Clare we were probably written off before the championship. But I think if you're on that team you have to think that third place in Munster would be the minimum."
It might only be the first step, but Clare need to find their stride today if they are to make that happen.
Follow Tipperary v Clare via our live blog on RTÉ.ie/sport and RTÉ News app, watch live on RTÉ 2 and RTÉ Player from 1.15pm or listen to national radio commentary on RTÉ Radio 1's Sunday Sport
