Opinion: when it came to weather forecasts and predictions, Irish folklore could give Met Éireann a run for their money

The ever-changing weather is part of daily conversation in Ireland. In the past, with no meteorological reports like we have today, people tried to predict the weather as best they could. In what was then a chiefly agricultural economy, poor weather conditions could make a good or bad year for farmers. At certain times of the year, the weather was observed for signs of things to come, and beliefs developed to predict the weather.

Every turn in the season saw some weather divination, and there were markers in the calendar to observe where we should be regarding weather patterns. Many of these were not exclusive to Ireland. It was thought that cold weather in midwinter bode well for spring and meant the absence of illness, exemplified in the saying 'a green Christmas makes a fat churchyard'.

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From RTÉ's Met Éireann pocast, from red skies at night to cows lying down, we hear how these folklore sayings may have developed and if they have a meteorological leg to stand on

Between Christmas and St Brigid's Day, people expected the worst weather of the year. A February with mild weather indicated a bad year of weather to come, while a lean harvest was expected if the cuckoo was heard while the trees were still bare of leaves. Red sky at night: shepherds' delight; Red sky in morning: shepherds’ warning meant a pink (red) hued sunset heralded good weather the next day, whereas a pink-skied dawn signified rain.

According to my late Uncle Paddy and many others, a ring around the moon indicated a coming storm. Swallows flying low were deemed a sign of rain. It was thought that seagulls flying inland signified storms. When a cat ate grass or turned its back to the fire, it might be a sign of rain. Rain too was predicted when cattle lay down in the fields, or if they stood with their backs to the hedges. St Paul's Day (January 25th) was a day for weather prediction for the year ahead. It was generally believed that 'if it be clear, a happy year' in terms of weather.

St Brigid’s Day (February 1st) signalled better weather and longer days – 'a grand stretch in the evening'. To rural farmers, it meant new life on the farm and a return to the growing season. Fishermen expected a reduction of storms and rough seas, but good weather on February 1st was an omen of bad spells to come. To see a hedgehog on the day was also a harbinger of good weather. A rainy month of February indicated a good summer.

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From Mooney Goes Wild, can the groundhog really predict the weather?

Candlemas (February 2nd) was also a time of forecasting weather and a fine day on Candlemas meant bad weather to come. One saying went: ‘If Candlemas Day is bright and clear you’ll have two winters in one year’. If a hedgehog or badger saw its own shadow on Candlemas, it meant bad weather (with similarities to Groundhog Day beliefs in North America). Another saying goes 'on Candlemas day throw candle and candlestick away’, which refers to the slight lengthening of the evenings from this time onward.

From St Patrick's Day onward, the weather was expected to become gradually finer and brought a noticeable longer stretch in the evenings. The early sowing of certain crops could now begin, also known as spring sowing.

But the weather sometimes turned cold again at the beginning of April and this period in Irish tradition is known as the Borrowed Days. This relates to the folktale of the Old Brindled Cow, an old native Irish breed, known for their distinctive ‘stripey’ coats. In the folktale, the cow boasted that the harsh weather of the month of March could not kill her. Hearing this, March borrowed three days from April and unleashed such bad weather that it not only killed the cow, but skinned her too. The tale serves as a warning not to get too used to the fine weather at this time of year, for it can turn bad very quickly.

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From RTÉ Radio 1's Today with Sean O'Rourke show in 2017, weather folklore with folklore expert Robbie Sinnott and Met Éireann's Joanna Donnelly

On May 1st, weather was observed for signs of what the rest of summer would bring. Frost on May Day was considered a bad sign for the weather ahead, as was a cold wind. It was believed that ‘a wet and windy May, fills the barns with corn and hay’, meaning a good harvest was in store.

St Swithin's Day (July 15th) was deemed important in predicting the weather. It was believed that if it rained on that day, then the following 40 days would also be wet. But if conditions were good, it would be good for 40 days. The legend goes that the spirit of St Swithin, a humble man, was so outraged by the lavish memorial erected in his honour that he made it rain so heavily until his followers took it down. Although Swithin was an English saint, the custom was observed in Ireland and for a time at least, was viewed as a sound way of predicting weather so that the belief became firmly rooted.

There were days in the year when cold and wet weather was wholly expected, such as on Good Friday and Garland or Reek Sunday in July. Fine weather was expected on August 15th, the feast day of the Assumption of the Blessed Virgin Mary.

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From RTÉ Archives, Dermot Mullane reports for RTÉ News on Garland Sunday celebrations in Co Sligo in 1975

On Michaelmas (September 29th), the rural Irish farmer watched at this time for signs of the weather to come. it was said that if "Michaelmas Day be bright and clear there will be two ‘Winters’ in the year". A key part of Halloween was divination, and the usual weather signs were discussed to guess what the year to come would bring.

Even though we have more sound and scientific ways today of predicting the weather, much of the weatherlore discussed here endures. If you want to find out more about old Irish weatherlore, the Schools Collection is a wonderful free online resource.


The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ