Analysis: facing an energy crisis not seen since the 1970s, how worried should we be about the lights going out this winter?
In light of a looming energy crisis in Europe, the challenge of maintaining Ireland's energy security is receiving more attention now than any time in recent decades. Our electricity grid has recently seen a number of "system alerts", previously known as "amber alerts", indicating that the margins between electricity supply and demand are becoming tighter.
The backdrop to this is skyrocketing energy prices, unprecedented levels of energy poverty and the threat of further disruption to European gas supply lines this winter emerging from the terrible events in Ukraine. This has led many to speculate that we are facing an energy crisis not seen since the 1970s, and a resulting deep economic recession.
But how have we arrived at this situation, and how worried should we be about the prospect of the lights going out this winter? What will happen in Ireland if the worst fears are realised and we run out of electricity? And finally, what can we do, in the short term and long term, to manage our way out of an energy crisis?
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From RTÉ Radio 1's News At One, Dr Barry Hayes on potential problems with Irish energy supplies
This energy crisis has been steadily developing over a number of years. Potential supply shortages have been repeatedly flagged by energy experts, and by our electricity system operator, Eirgrid. Since 2017, Eirgrid's annually-released planning statements have consistently highlighted vulnerabilities in our grid due to tight supply-demand margins, and an urgent need to upgrade key elements of our electricity generation and transmission infrastructure.
It is in fact remarkable that our electricity system has been so reliable to date, given the lack of investment in new grid infrastructure, and the challenges the grid faces on both the supply and demand sides. A long-running problem on the supply side has been our inability to procure backup fossil fuel generation to provide capacity during periods of low wind. On the demand side, we have seen a very large increase in electricity demand in recent years, mostly driven by the connection of new data centres.
The political blame game for our energy security woes has already begun. Many point the finger at policies that have allowed the rapid expansion of Ireland's data hosting industry, leading to a situation where data centres now make up 14% of our total electricity demand. This increased demand from data centres has undoubtedly created challenges to our security of supply. However, the primary cause of this crisis is our ongoing failure to develop and deliver new gas-fired backup generators to provide the required capacity during periods of low wind.
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From RTÉ Radio 1's Morning Ireland, how can we avoid energy blackouts this winter?
Recent developments show that the risk of major outages is steadily increasing. System alerts issued by Eirgrid indicate that the margins between generation and demand are tightening. However, these system alerts are a cause for concern, rather than a cause for panic.
In order for a large-scale grid outage or blackout to occur, a number of bad things need to happen at once. We could envisage a scenario this winter, where we have a "perfect storm", with a spell of extremely cold weather driving up electricity demand, combined with low wind speeds reducing the capability of our wind generation fleet. If this coincides with technical failures on some of our larger power generation or transmission assets, it could stretch the grid beyond its current capabilities, leading to major supply disruptions.
How likely is this to happen? The truth is that it is impossible to say, since the above scenario depends on several factors that are inherently unpredictable. We may be lucky in that we avoid any major technical faults during peak periods when supply-demand is tightest. The weather may be kind, with good winds and a relatively mild winter without extreme cold weather events. Another major uncertainty is potential Russian disruption to European gas supplies, and what the knock-on effects of continental gas shortages might mean for Ireland.
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From RTÉ Radio 1's Today With Claire Byrne, former Head of ESB International Don Moore on the blame game over review into electricity supplies
It is also relevant to note that Ireland is far from alone in experiencing major energy security concerns going into this winter. Germany recently introduced a range of new demand reduction measures, and is re-commissioning old coal and oil generating plants in response to the Russian gas supply threat. France, a country that relies heavily on electricity for domestic heating, is facing a serious risk of blackouts due to technical problems in its aging fleet of nuclear generators. The UK's energy security challenges are broadly similar to our own.
In the event that our worst energy security fears are realised, detailed plans are in place to ration electricity, sharing the burden of electricity outages as fairly as possible among customers. Large industrial users are first asked to reduce their electricity demand, and if this does not relieve grid problems, customers are disconnected on a rota basis, with a minimum 12 hours’ notice given in advance of disconnection.
Ireland is far from alone in experiencing major energy security concerns going into this winter
What is clear is that our electricity grid is now in a precarious situation. Short-term measures, such as higher tariffs on electricity users during peak evening times, and importing emergency generators may see us through the next few winters. A major casualty of this crisis will be our emissions targets, as we run older and more carbon-intensive generators, such as the Moneypoint coal station, for much longer than intended to help ensure security of supply.
What is also very clear is that we now need to deliver on our major energy infrastructure projects in this decade, including offshore renewables, PV solar projects, grid interconnectors, network upgrades, and grid-scale energy storage. We simply cannot afford the delays due to planning issues, NIMBYism, and political infighting that have plagued so many major infrastructure projects in this country.
The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ
