Who will Northern Ireland's 'people in the middle' vote for?

Opinion: the middle ground are willing for the first time to contemplate an all-island and European alternative to Stormont and Westminister

By Darren Litter, Queen's University Belfast

The forthcoming Northern Ireland Assembly election in May has once again brought talk of the 'middle ground'. It is the notion that most people in the north want the institutions to work, for 'normal' policy issues to dominate and for the dignity and respect shown following the tragic deaths of Lyra McKee and Christopher Stalford to be extended to the NI political system more broadly. There is clear evidence of this both empirically and anecdotally, but there is a question as to what degree there is an effective supply for this demand, particularly in the context of shifting dynamics within these islands.

At the outset, it is important to note that governance by what is typically regarded as the middle ground is not some magic potion. When the UUP and SDLP were the largest parties after the 1998 peace agreement, they were subject to considerable pressures arising centrally from the issue of decommissioning. But it must also be said that the relationship between First and Deputy First Ministers David Trimble and the late Seamus Mallon was arguably the worst in the Executive's short history.

The Alliance Party, as their apparent future of perpetual growth suggests, is the party which most regard as the answer for a frustrated electorate. It has almost arrived at this position by default, by virtue of trying to bring people together in the face of deepening political divisions (literally so with its Integrated Education Bill).

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From RTÉ Radio 1's Morning Ireland, Alliance Party deputy leader Stephen Farry MP on what's next for politics in Northern Ireland

But there is a limit to this. There is a certain progressive character to the middle and Alliance will only go so far, as a recent vote on trade union laws reaffirmed. As the SDLP leader Colum Eastwood has said, it is reluctant to come out of its small-u unionist shell. This is despite visible appetite for it from younger activists and 58% of NI 'Others' (non-nationalist or unionist) indicating they would, or possibly could, now support the north joining with the south post-Brexit. Alliance leader Naomi Long acknowledged during the party's recent conference that the party will at some point have to take a position on this issue.

The Doug Beattie social media scandal notwithstanding, the UUP has likewise benefited from a message of stability over crisis, apparently at one point overtaking DUP at war with itself. It is modernising in the face of a changing society, attracting and fielding former PUP high-flyer and lesbian mother, Julie-Anne Corr-Johnston; the West Belfast-born Catholic Stephen McCarthy and the anti-Brexit farmer and former Seanad member, Ian Marshall.

While the union was a relatively easy sell with New Labour, the elephant in the room for the UUP is a current British government distrusted by 84% of NI (nearly 40% more than in the case of the Irish government or EU). Unless somebody like a Tom Tugenhadt somehow claimed the Conservative Party leadership, it is unfathomable that the UUP could again contemplate the UUP-Tory alliance of 2010.

From RTÉ Radio 1's Sunday with Miriam, Armagh SDLP councillor Pete Byrne on the recent debate on gay conversion therapy in the NI Assembly and what it was like for him to come out as gay in Northern Ireland

Despite some remarkable results in the 2019 Westminster election, the SDLP appear not to have made headway in building their vote, sitting at just under 10%. Eastwood, who began a seemingly now suspended partnership with Fianna Fáil in 2019, has perhaps been too close to Sinn Féin on the constitutional issue. He has been drawn into a narrative of imminence, in contrast to the easy, assuring approach of the Taoiseach Micheál Martin, which the Shared Island Unit embodies.

It has possibly also not helped Eastwood that FF has not committed to a left-of-centre vision, something which would sit well with the SDLP's northern platform, and which some in the south feel will be key to any FF resurgence. There is additionally the difficulty that if the SDLP go further with FF, it could find itself in government with SF, while simultaneously trying to compete with it in NI.

There is another strand within the SDLP - chiefly its strongest asset, Claire Hanna - who seem to be more inclined toward a Labour and Fine Gael future, with rumblings at one point of a new NI entity representing both the Irish and UK Labour parties. This would satisfy the deficit of clear labour representation in the north, as UK Labour refuse to run; in a way harking back to Irish Labour's historical tendency toward the much derided, but not entirely without merit "two nations theory".

From RTÉ News, 2019 profile of Claire Hanna, the SDLP's MP for Belfast South

For now, It would seem that the SDLP will remain as is, reverting to engaging with each of the traditional Irish parties of state, the talent of its front bench being its core selling point. But the longstanding tension between the nationalist and social democratic wings of the party will be revisited and the outcome from May's election is likely to be decisive in this.

It is not often mentioned in this context, but a party which could figure in the future of the island are the Greens. It is an all-island party since 2006, in government in the south and reportedly up to 6% support in NI (an increase of 3.7% since 2017). With its instrumental role in climate change legislation north and south, the Greens have the unique potential to build a new Ireland situated within a positive, international effort. In Dublin there is strong, cross-party consensus for responding to the climate emergency, while in London a cohort of Brexiteer MPs are now intending to have an impact as the so-called Net Zero Scrutiny Group. The DUP Agriculture Minister Edwin Poots attempted to move NI targets 18% below the net zero 2050 goal set by more than 130 countries, but this was rejected by the Assembly.

The middle in NI want a functioning polity, a drastically improved Westminster picture and are willing to contemplate an all-island and European alternative in lieu of this for the first time. As Tony Blair and John Major jointly warned, Brexit has made the first scenario extremely difficult, and what are viewed as the middle parties are to an extent caught in its limbo.

From RTÉ Radio 1's Morning Ireland, Stephen McCarthy, a working class Catholic who grew up in a nationalist household, on his bid to win an Assembly seat for the UUP

With their palatable brands of civic liberalism and unionism, Alliance and the UUP are set to be the most significant gainers in May, albeit still behind the DUP, per latest polling. But if the stark trust issue is not remedied by the British government, that middle tide may start to shift in favour of the SDLP and, in turn, the Greens if they are able to better emphasise their all-island footing. The Irish government's financial support for health insurance, student exchanges and inter-border infrastructure will positively contribute to this, as will its more substantive action on the defining global issue of alleviating the suffering of the people of Ukraine.

It also possible that post-election, with EU-UK agreement on the NI Protocol reached, Jeffrey Donaldson will apply Carl Jung's wisdom that "what you resist persists". If the DUP does remain one of the largest two parties, this would involve going into government with SF as the largest party, allowing the regular cut and thrust of politics to determine fortunes and not crisis.

Remember the DUP were at their strongest in 2011 when they and SF adopted a business-like approach to power-sharing (commanding 57% of voters together). According to Martin McGuinness, he and Ian Paisley were united by "the common view that our people were better able to govern themselves". With SF themselves down 5% since 2017, the readoption of this could be key to unlocking the Stormont stalemate - in addition to strengthening the approach of the current British government.

Darren Litter is a PhD Candidate in the School of History, Anthropology, Philosophy and Politics at Queen's University Belfast.

The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ

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