In the final stretch, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are going all-in – campaigning hard in the battleground states that will decide this election. Although Clinton’s lead in the RealClearPolitics polling average nationally ranges roughly between four and five percentage points—a seemingly comfortable margin with less than two weeks to go—both camps are keenly aware that politics can be unpredictable.
One possibility is that this election is tighter than the polls indicate. One potential factor being discussed is the “shy Trump voter” phenomenon. This is actually a theory, not a proven fact, but the notion that Trump has been marginalized by elites in the media has spawned a concern among Democrats—and hope among Republicans—that’s The Donald will outperform his numbers.
Then, there’s the prospect of an “October surprise” that changes the equation at the last minute. Such a revelation occurred in 2000, days before the voting, when an old drunk driving arrest of George W. Bush was unearthed by a Fox television station in Maine. Bush’s vote totals almost certainly dropped because of this well-timed little bombshell. This year’s equivalent may—or may not—have come midday Friday when the FBI announced it is reopening the investigation into Clinton’s emails that she sent and received on a private server.
"In connection with an unrelated case, the FBI has learned of the existence of emails that appear to be pertinent to this investigation," FBI Director James Comey wrote in an unexpected letter to Congress.
Comey did not say how long this phase of investigation would take or whether the new information was significant to the previously closed investigation of whether Clinton mishandled classified information with her use of the private server.
Although it is unlikely an investigation would be completed or have any new announcements before the Nov. 8 general election, Trump jumped on the news.
“Hillary Clinton's corruption is on a scale that we have never seen before,” he said at a rally in New Hampshire. “We must not let her take her are criminal scheme into the Oval Office. I have great respect for the fact that the FBI and the Department of Justice are now willing to have the courage to right the horrible mistake that they made.”
Finally, a potential hurdle blocking Hillary’s return to the White House is the American method of choosing presidents: winner-take-all, state-by-state, with each state’s votes in the Electoral College being determined by the size of its population. The possible glitch here—and it happened in that Bush-Al Gore race in 2000—is that the winner of the popular vote can lose in the Electoral College. This is why both campaigns are concentrating on the closely contested “battleground” states.
Trump held three rallies in three different states on Friday. He began the day in New Hampshire, where Clinton leads by more than five percentage points in the RCP polling average; he next went to Maine, where Clinton is also leading by over five points; and ended his day in Iowa, where he is ahead by less than two points. He’ll spend the weekend on a western states swing that includes Colorado (Clinton up over five points), Arizona (Clinton up by 1.5 points) and Nevada (Clinton up by two points). Running mate Mike Pence will spend this time in Pennsylvania and North Carolina.
During the same time frame, Clinton and her surrogates are fanning out to Iowa, Florida, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Ohio, Michigan and North Carolina – that’s seven battleground states in three days.
On Thursday, the camp rolled out perhaps its biggest gun in Michelle Obama. The highly popular first lady campaigned with Clinton for the first time, drawing a large crowd to Wake Forest University in North Carolina. RCP’s Caitlin Huey-Burns has more details here.
And organized labor is pulling out all the stops in its effort to put Clinton in the White House, Alexis Simendinger reports.
Stumping is an important part of the two things that can make or break a campaign: ground game and money.
A big part of the former is get-out-the-vote efforts, including a push for early voting, and NBC News reports that 13.7 million people have already cast their ballots, which includes 7.5 million in 12 battleground states.
Which candidate they voted for won’t be known until Election Day, but the NBC News’ campaign embeds (reporters assigned to each campaign) note that they don’t see volunteers signing up people to vote at Trump events but do see this activity at Clinton rallies.
Then, of course, there’s money: the mother’s milk of politics.
Clinton has more the 2 ½ times the amount that Trump has generated, Politico reports. Her campaign committee, the joint committees with the Democratic Party and the pro-Clinton super PACs have $172 million in the bank, compared to $73 million for Team Trump and the GOP. In the first three weeks of October, Clinton and her team brought in $120 million compared to $65 million for Trump.
The Republican standard-bearer, meanwhile, told CNN he would give his campaign $100 million. That hasn’t happened – yet. Trump did wire $10 million into his campaign bank account on Friday, the Wall Street Journal reported, bringing his total investment in the contest to $66 million.
At this point in the cycle, campaigns are required to report contributions to the Federal Election Commission within 48 hours so filings for the Trump campaign should reflect this soon.
--Emily Goodin is managing editor of RealClearPolitics; Carl Cannon is RCP's Washington bureau chief.
