Analysis: a new Taoiseach will mean new ministers, but it's as yet unclear if we'll also see a reorganisation of Government departments
The historic December handover of the Taoiseach's office from Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin to Fine Gael's Leo Varadkar will be a historic first for the country's political system and the state’s two historic political rivals. It will also likely see the reshuffling of several Government ministers either to other departments or out of cabinet altogether.
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From RTÉ Radio 1's The Week In Politics, a discussion on the upcoming cabinet reshuffle as a result of a change at the Taoiseach's office
The rotation of the premiership without a change in government has never happened previously, but is nevertheless governed by constitutional and legal processes. Under Article 28.9 of the Constitution, the current Taoiseach will resign his office, automatically dissolving the Government. A Dáil investiture vote will then be held to elect the new Taoiseach, followed by a second investiture vote to approve the new cabinet.
Once approved, the new Taoiseach will also vacate the Department of Enterprise, necessitating the appointmenty of a replacement. The outgoing Taoiseach will also be taking over a department, though opinion suggests this is unlikely to be Enterprise, which will mean a move for another minister or the promotion of a TD to that portfolio.
Martin himself is tipped to take either Foreign Affairs or Justice, both highly prestigious ministries. The incumbent would then either take up Enterprise, or a wider reshuffle will occur, with suggestions that Stephen Donnelly might leave the Department of Health, and current Minister for Foreign Affairs Simon Coveney switching to the Department of Agriculture.
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From RTÉ Radio 1's Today With Claire Byrne, interview with Taoiseach Micheál Martin
Beyond the will-they-won’t-they drama of this unprecedented handover of power between the two civil war rivals, a long logistics tail awaits. Alongside the bedrock constitutional stipulations, ministerial decision-making power is governed by legislation, particularly for junior ministers.
As the Government has resigned and been nominated afresh, new statutory orders must be agreed at cabinet under legislation passed by the Oireachtas, specifically under the Ministers and Secretaries (Amendment) (No. 2) Act, 1977, which delegates a cabinet minister’s legal powers to their junior minister.
The current feeling is that the rotation will be restricted to a personnel reshuffle, with ministers swapping portfolios rather than reorganising departments themselves. A wider process involving the reconfiguration of government departments (often noticeable in the rebranding of signage and stationary) would entail the reconfiguration of departmental responsibilities and titles, but there is no indication that this will occur.
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From RTÉ Radio 1's This Week, interview with Tánaiste and Minister for Enterprise Trade and Employment Leo Varadkar
Like ministerial reshuffles, reorganisations occur worldwide (although rarely in pure-presidential jurisdictions like the US, where securing Congressional authorisation is a major roadblock). In Europe, portfolios change quite regularly, ranging from twice a year on average in France, for example, to every two years in Austria.
This marks it out as an administrative process notable for its commonality and frequency, not least for its cost. A study by the UK Institute for Government estimated that a reconfiguration can cost anything from £15 million to £170 million (€17.35m to €196m).
Even so, we know relatively little about it. In Ireland, reorganisations normally occur when a department’s title changes. As with the delegation of responsibility to junior ministers, this is normally done via two statutory orders issued under the Ministers and Secretaries (Amendment) Act, 1939, one to transfer policy "functions" between departments and a second to change departmental title.
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From RTÉ Radio 1's Drivetime in October 2015, what's the cost of a Government reshuffle?
Scholars point out that these have become a regular event in the past 25 years and routinely involve multiple departments versus the trend of single-department reconfigurations prior to the late 1990s. Whereas department creation and reorganisation rarely occurred until the 1950s, when the state assumed ever-greater functions and responsibilities, it was only in the late 1980s, with the demise of single-party majority government, that the modern trend towards large, multi-department reorganisations emerged.
As these department-level changes are enacted through law, there is a public record of each change. The Irish State Administration Database catalogues the "life" histories of state bodies and is a primary databank for researching department reorganisations. The Statute Book also provides an entry record for each instance of the relevant ministerial orders.
Reorganisations have generally happened after an election over the past 25 years, but can occur at any time, as for example occurred after Leo Varadkar became Taoiseach in 2017. Ireland is not unusual in this respect: international research has shown that various factors affect the likelihood of government ministries being reorganised, but chief among these are a change of prime minister or an election.
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From RTÉ Radio 1's Brendan O'Connor Show, the newspaper panel discuss expectations around the Cabinet reshuffle
However, much remains to be researched about the nature of these processes. Department name changes are the obvious types, but these do not track what structural changes to departmental units occur during these reorganisations. This means that internal departmental structure transfer or reconfiguration might remain undetected.
The restructuring of the Department of Justice in 2019 is a case in point. Prompted by the fallout from the McCabe penalty points scandal, the Department was internally restructured into two thematic "pillars" – one handling criminal justice functions, the other civil justice matters. The department’s legal title and functions remained unchanged, however, and no legislative mechanism was necessary for activation.
Different categories of reorganisation may therefore be initiated by different actors: the Government may do so at a department level for political reasons, while internal department restructuring may be done by the secretary-general of the department for administrative reasons. But without clarification of the different categories we cannot identify the initiating actors or the kinds of motivations that animate these changes. Internationally, the process is considered politically-driven, initiated by government, usually in the context of coalition negotiations. As the Justice example attests, however, this does not account for internal administrative restructurings.
This means that internal departmental structure transfer or reconfiguration might remain undetected
Exploring these categories would help clarify how departmental output – the types of legislation, budget allocation and overall range of policy produced - changes as a result. This would, for example, help determine if more environmental or equality legislation is produced within a department if "environment" or "equality", say, is in the title or when a unit handling these areas is present/created internally.
Ultimately, the nature of previous reorganisations and the types of factors that make these more likely suggest that the December handover will likely remain a personnel reshuffle, rather than a department reorganisation. All indications suggest the focus is on "stability". As reconfigurations are normally carved out during government formation, there seems little political advantage to a "deep" portfolio redesign at this juncture.
The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ
