Opinion: with less than 80 days until voters go to the polls, the election is less anyone's to win and more the president's to lose
In April, French voters will decide who presides over France for the next five years. Despite a tumultuous presidency, all pollsters place the current president as the front-runner. Emmanuel Macron is hoping to break a spell cast on recent incumbents who failed to secure a second term, but can he really succeed where his predecessors Nicolas Sarkozy and François Hollande failed? What challenges lay in his path to re-election?
The die is from cast and, as France prepares to lift Covid restrictions, Macron's many adversaries will try and steer the debates to the topics they believe will hurt the incumbent the most such as immigration, identity and economics. More fundamentally, electoral behaviour in France is heavily influenced by its two-round electoral system, in which the top two candidates the first day out access the next round. Macron’s chances of re-election will partly hinge on his opponent for the second round, and the dexterity with which he will manage his current lead.
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From RTÉ One's Nine News, report on Emmanuel Macron's first official visit to Ireland in August 2021
Jacques Chirac was the last president to get a second term, winning in 2002 against far-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen. In 2017, Macron easily defeated Marine Le Pen, in what was widely described as a rare "alignment of stars". Once described by one his aides as "Jupiter" (in reference to his monarchical style), Macron only had to exploit a field of political ruins: a mainstream-left in disarray following Hollande’s chaotic presidency, and a mainstream-right annihilated by accusations of fraud and internal feuds throughout the campaign.
Macron has operated methodically to try impose a rematch against Le Pen this time our, but his masterplan has been unexpectedly thrown into jeopardy by dramatic shifts in the political landscape. The left is all but divided, but Conservatives licked their wounds and elected Valerie Pecresse as their candidate (currently at 17%). The all bells and whistles emergence of Eric Zemmour (12%) risks splitting the far-right vote and thus weakening Le Pen (16%). A Macron/Le Pen rematch looks less certain than it did a year ago, but not impossible.
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From France 24, The Debate looks at who's going to take on Macron in 2022
The Le Pen dynasty repeatedly promised to shatter the electoral glass ceiling, but beyond the rhetoric (they scored 34% against Macron in 2017), what lies behind it? My research focuses on the concept of negative partisanship, which may be thought of as a voter’s outright rejection of a party. It is usually measured by asking respondents which party they would "never vote for", and semantics are important here: "never" is a stronger commitment than "will not". As such, these feelings stem from a deep-rooted "aversion" associated with emotions and affect, implying a remarkable stability and a dilemma for parties towards whom a negative partisanship is directed. Northern Irish voters and Sinn Fein, for example, are no strangers to this phenomenon.
Of course, electoral behaviour is driven by a multitude of factors such as leader evaluation, government performance and party attachments. However, we know from past research that negative partisanship plays a significant role in driving turnout and vote choice, especially in respect of populist parties. Le Pen is therefore correct: there is a glass ceiling (at least in terms of negative partisanship) but breaking through it, as recent academic work suggests, is wishful thinking for now.
In some cases, a negative partisanship is driven by ideological labels, such as a left-wing voter’s dislike towards a right-wing party. In the unlikely event that he wins a spot in round two, Zemmour's extreme stances will undoubtedly spark a so-called "front republicain" (e.g. anyone but the populists).
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From Reuters, who is Valerie Pecresse, the woman who could be France's first female president?
Neither Le Pen nor Zemmour can reasonably hope for a surprise victory, but their mounting fractious squabbles augur well for Pecresse, who sees an opportunity to come to a head with Macron. In this case, as John Lichfield puts it, the French will have to choose "between brie and Camembert", between a pro-European pro-business and another – "Twins", in the words of Le Pen.
If a Macron-Pecresse battle becomes a possibility, the incumbent is forced into a risky balancing act, between defending his arguably fruitful economic reforms and alleviating the effects of rising costs of energy. He will have to do this while fending off attacks coming from the right on issues like immigration and national identity – where Pecresse has a clear advantage – and attending to his left-leaning and generally pro-European voters.
On January 1st, France took over the rotating presidency of the EU for a period of six months, which only happens every 13 years. Time will tell whether the stars are lining up for Jupiter this time around. But on this occasion, the so-called flag-gate controversy, sparked by the display of the European flag without the French one under the Arc de Triomphe, compelled the government to swiftly roll back.
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From RTÉ Radio 1's Today With Claire Byrne, Paris-based journalist Peter Allen on flag-gate
Two weeks later, in a speech to the European Parliament, Macron sent some signals to the left by defending such causes as the environment, abortion, culture and education, along with minimum wages. All of which were neatly packaged with an overtly pro-business approach and a defence of French interests globally.
Macron is threading a very fine line. Current polls suggest he has a six points lead against Pecresse. But without the mobilising effect of negative partisanship when he faced Le Pen five years ago, it remains unclear whether left-wing voters will be compelled to take sides this time. Macron’s strategy will likely consist in mobilising his centre-right base ahead of the first round, while at the same time whispering to centre-left voters in the view of re-gaining their support in the second. With less than 80 days to go, the elections are therefore less anyone’s to win and more Macron’s to lose.
The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ
