Opinion: Hybrids combine democratic election with strategies utilised in autocracies to manipulate and control public opinion
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) have dominated Turkish politics since the first election following the founding of the party in 2002. The party itself was founded by Erdogan, who had been the major of Istanbul. In the early years under the AKP, Turkey's elections were undoubtedly fair. It should be noted that even in the most recent elections and the 2017 referendum, Erdogan most likely won fairly.
Despite this, recent developments have prompted experts to doubt the fairness and legitimacy of Turkey's democracy. Instead they have begun to reclassify Turkey as a hybrid regime. These hybrids between democracy and autocracy combine democratic election with strategies utilised in autocracies to manipulate and control public opinion.
In traditional democratic systems, we are used to the government being unable to remove judges on a whim and the selection of new judges is geared towards avoiding political appointments. In the case of Turkey, this has been called into question since the 2017 referendum.
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From RTÉ Radio 1's Morning Ireland. Dr Onur Oymen, former Turkish Ambassador to NATO and a member of the Opposition CHP party, discusses the reaction to the controversial referendum results
The new presidential system gives Erdogan the ability to appoint 12 of the 15 members of the Constitutional Court of Turkey. This is the only body that can challenge his decision aside from the Turkish parliament, which, in turn, is controlled by his own political party, the AKP. Furthermore, 2,745 judges, almost 40% of all Turkish judges, were detained following the coup attempt in 2016 and replaced by the government. This is a clear sign of an increase in autocratic tendencies within the Turkish judicial system.
Another autocratic trait present in many hybrid regimes is high levels of corruption among both political and business elites. Unlike in democracies where corruption is often curbed through laws and criminal investigation, these features are absent or only applied selectively in hybrid regimes.
This can be seen in the December 2013 corruption scandal, when the sons of several Turkish ministers and ministerial workers were implicated for fraud. While this may not hint at direct involvement by the government, it certainly hints at the possible true extent of corruption within the government. More telling, however, were the reactions of the government when new investigations later that month were expected that might involve Erdogan's sons Bilal and Burak. Roughly 350 police officers were removed from their posts, including the chiefs of the units dealing with financial crimes, smuggling and organised crime. This highlights the willingness and ability of the Turkish government to remove unwanted government elements even before the 2016 purges occurred.
From RTÉ Radio 1's News At One, journalist Andrew Finkel discusses Turkey's slide towards autocracy
A final aspect of hybrid regimes that is extremely prevalent in the case of Turkey is the restrictions put onto press freedom, which has taken various forms. As a means to influence press freedom, the AKP under Erdogan gained increasing control over public TV and radio stations, such as Anadolu Agency and the Turkish Radio and Television Corporation (TRT).
Another approach has been to hit news agencies that do not support the AKP with arbitrary tax penalties to force them into bankruptcy. Furthermore, Türksat, the only satellite operator in Turkey, is alleged to be omitting TV channels that are critical of Erdogan and the AKP, making them unavailable through its services. The Turkish government has also demonstrated the capability to completely block access to certain websites. This is sometimes done temporarily, as seen during the 2016 coup, but also permanently, as in the case of Wikipedia which had all of its language versions banned in Turkey.
Erdogan still justifies his increased powers through his democratic legitimation and acting on the "will of the people"
The current state of the political system in Turkey highly suggests that it is a hybrid regime. Erdogan and the AKP most likely would be able to win elections without additional manipulation but there are, as previously mentioned, several weaknesses of the democratic system in Turkey. On top of this Turkey has also developed a highly personalist political system. Many of the recent political changes have been made not to accommodate the AKP as a whole but to strengthen the position of Erdogan himself, making the power structure highly volatile.
While Erdogan was most likely fairly elected, he is showing a willingness to squash any dissenting voices and opposition. Nevertheless, at this stage, it would appear that he is unlikely to completely remove the democratic system. Erdogan still justifies his increased powers through his democratic legitimation and acting on the "will of the people". At the end, whether the system slides further towards autocracy or rallies its democratic forces will depend on Erdogan accepting potentially unfavourable electoral results. The re-running of Istanbul's mayoral election after opposition candidate Ekrem Imamoglu's victory has proven that Erdogan is willing to dispute disfavourable results. On the other hand, Erdogan did accept the results of the second run, which was again was won by Imamoglu.
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From RTÉ Radio 1's Morning Ireland, Borzou Daragah from The Independent on the situation in Turkey as officials order a re-run of Istanbul election
Ultimately, the democratic nature of Turkey will depend on whether Erdogan is willing to make more questionable and anti-democratic use of his enormous powers to cling to office. It is possible that the damage to the stability of the Turkish governmental system is already done and only a roll-back by future presidents might be able to fix it.
Recent developments appear to indicate that Erdogan is trying to evoke the image of a strong president through such actions as the invasion of the Northern parts of Syria. While this appears to be a popular move among Turkish voters currently, it remains to be seen whether this favour will reverse and hasten Erdogan’s political decline if the offensive becomes a liability for Turkey.
The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ
