With just four days to go to polling in the Dublin South West by-election, things have suddenly started to become very interesting – just in time for tonight’s Prime Time debate involving all eleven candidates in the constituency.
A row over alleged dirty tricks has given plenty of publicity to Paul Murphy, the Anti-Austerity Alliance candidate, and to the crucial issue of water charges.
Murphy was incensed by the circulation by members of Sinn Féin of a bogus Facebook exchange, purporting to show him admitting to lying about Sinn Féin’s policy on water charges.
Once he showed it was bogus, Sinn Féin figures including deputy leader Mary Lou McDonald and Dublin South West candidate Cathal King took down the post and apologised.
While it isn’t clear who concocted the exchange, they were presumably trying to damage Murphy’s chances on Friday – but may have ended up helping him instead.
Going on the voting figures in the last general election, Labour should be in poll position to win the by-election caused by the election of Fine Gael’s Brian Hayes to the European Parliament.
In 2011, Labour won 36.3% of the vote, and two seats, in Dublin South West, compared to 27.8% and one seat for Fine Gael, 17.2% and one seat for Sinn Féin, 10.8% for Fianna Fáil, 1% for the Greens, and 7% for others.
But this is not, of course, 2011, and voting patterns in the constituency have changed considerably, judging by the local election results last May.
The local electoral areas of Tallaght Central and Tallaght South are entirely in the constituency, as well as parts of Templeogue Terenure and Rathfarnham.
Those four LEAs returned 6 Sinn Féin councillors, 4 Independents, 3 each for Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, Labour and the Anti-Austerity Alliance, and one each for People Before Profit and the Green Party.
In Tallaght South, Sinn Féin took 51% of the vote, as well as 32% in Tallaght Central. Those figures explain why the bookies have installed Sinn Féin’s Cathal King, the poll topper in the Tallaght Central LEA, as the front-runner.
Whether the spat about water charges and alleged dirty tricks does anything to affect the outcome remains to be seen. And perhaps being the poll-topper is something of a poisoned chalice in Dublin South West – in the last three general elections, the previous poll-topper has lost his seat – Brian Hayes in 2002, Sean Crowe in 2007, and Conor Lenihan in 2011. The poll-topper in 2011 was Labour’s Pat Rabbitte – perhaps an ominous portent for the former Minister.
The full list of candidates, all of whom have been invited to tonight’s Prime Time debate, is: Declan Burke, Non-party; Nicky Coules, People Before Profit; Francis Noel Duffy, Green Party; Cait Keane, Fine Gael; Pamela Kearns, Labour; Cathal King, Sinn Féin; John Lahart, Fianna Fáil; Ronan McMahon, Non-party; Paul Murphy, Anti-Austerity Alliance; Colm O’Keeffe, Non-party; Tony Rochford, Non-party.
David McCullagh
