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Central Bank upgrades 2015 GDP growth forecast from 3.4% to 3.7%

Central Bank Governor Patrick Honohan
Central Bank Governor Patrick Honohan

The Central Bank has raised its growth forecast for 2015 to 3.7% of GDP.

The bank had previously expected growth for the year ahead to be 3.4%.

For 2016, the Central Bank says it expects growth to continue at a similar level and is forecasting GDP growth of 3.8%.

In its latest quarterly bulletin, the Central Bank says growth at this level should support the creation of 75,000 jobs over the coming two years.

It says growth is now balanced, with strong contributions from domestic demand as well as exports. 

It says risks to the forecast are also balanced, but the economy might grow more strongly. The main negative risks are all external, such as the Greek debt situation or the Ukraine crisis.

The Central Bank says last year's exceptionally strong GDP growth - which it believes was of the order of 5.1% - was boosted by changes to the statistics used to measure growth, namely the inclusion of contract manufacturing.

These are products manufactured abroad on behalf of Irish companies and sold to third markets, but booked as sales by the Irish company.

This effect will not recur, and so the Central Bank expects export sales to increase in line with external demand growth.

Domestic demand should be helped by increased consumer spending. More disposable income - driven chiefly by increased employment - should mean more spending in the economy, but the high levels of consumer debt may continue to act as a drag.

Investment is expected to continue to grow strongly, though moderating from the very strong levels seen over the past two years.

Construction will grow, but from a very low base.  All this leads the Central Bank to increase its forecast for output by 0.3% of GDP, and 0.2% of GNP.