2011 growth, inflation tipped to rise, ECB survey finds
The European Central Bank today unveiled outside euro zone inflation and growth forecasts that suggest its own could both be slightly higher than previously expected this year.
The ECB is to release quarterly forecasts by its own staff next month and the figures just released - a survey of professional forecasts - suggest the next set of its data might be revised upwards.
The central bank's survey of professional forecasters (SPF) for the first quarter of 2011, published in the ECB monthly bulletin for February, now anticipates growth of 1.6% this year and inflation of 1.9%. That would be in line with the bank's medium-term inflation target of below but close to 2%.
The previous SPF had predicted levels of 1.5% for both growth and inflation in 2011.
In December, the range of ECB staff forecasts produced midpoints that put growth and inflation this year at 1.7% and 1.8% respectively. Economists forecast an upward revision of both when new estimates are unveiled on March 3.
Euro zone inflation climbed to 2.4% in January due to higher prices for energy and food products but the ECB reiterated today that 'commodity prices are expected to stabilise in the course of 2011'.
For 2012, the SPF gave a growth estimate of 1.7%, unchanged from the previous level, and inflation was tipped at 1.8%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous estimate.
The upward revision to inflation is 'due almost entirely to higher oil and other commodity prices, which, however, are expected to have only a temporary impact on inflation,' the ECB said.
The main ECB interest rate has remained at a record low of 1% since May 2009 but many economists expect it to begin rising in the third quarter of this year as inflation pressures persist.
