The State farm organisation Teagasc has said that the outlook for agriculture is fairly positive in the medium term. But economists have warned that if there is an agreement on World Trade then agricultural income could fall by between 5% and 13% a year.
The positive outlook for the next few years suggests that dairy prices are unlikely to fall much further. Beef prices will also hold up in the absence of imports from Brazil. Cereal prices are currently down, but well above those of a few years ago.
But agricultural income in 2017 is expected to be €2.4 billion, 11% down on current figures when input costs are deducted.
The Teagasc economists say there will probably not be a world trade deal until 2010, following the collapse of negotiations during the summer.
They agreed that the biggest impact of a deal is likely to be on the beef and lamb sectors. If beef is not given special 'sensitive' status, beef income could drop by €320m a year. But if this special treatment is given, the fall would still be about €130m a year.
Even in the best possible scenario, imports of beef into the EU are expected to rise by 30% by 2017, and beef production here would fall by 2%, with a 10% drop in sheep production.
