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Unemployment rate stays at 5.5% in April

Live Register - Early Easter impacts figures
Live Register - Early Easter impacts figures

There was a very small decrease in the number of people signing on the Live Register in April, the latest figures from the Central Statistics Office show.

The seasonally adjusted Live Register total decreased by 200 from 199,900 to 199,700. This compares to an increase of 12,000 in March. The CSO says the wide variation in the monthly change was due to the early timing of Easter this year.

The number of people signing on the dole fell last month, as workers who have been laid off temporarily for Easter in March returned to their jobs after the holiday period.

The Live Register figures show when seasonal employment factors are taken into account, the numbers on the dole at the end of April was 199,700.  This was a reduction of 200 people compared with the total for March.

The 199,700 people signing on the dole in April represents an unemployment rate of 5.5% of the Irish workforce.

However, the figures show the level of male unemployment continuing to rise strongly. An additional 2,100 males were added to the Live Register during the month of March and the number of males unemployed nationally has now risen by more than 35% over the past year.

Finance Minister Brian Cowen's constituency of Laois-Offaly has been the hardest hit by the sharp rise in male unemployment with the number of men on the dole up by a massive 84% in Portlaoise and by 56% in Tullamore over the past 12 months.

For the country as a whole, the figures show unemployment has risen by 41,300 since this time last year and 81% of that increase has been accounted for by men.

Today's figures show that in the year to April there was an unadjusted increase of 41,279 (26.7%) people signing on the Live Register. This compares with an unadjusted increase of 42,123 (27%) in the year to March 2008.

The CSO says there was an unadjusted monthly decrease of 2,394 (1.2%) on the Live Register in April. The largest percentage decrease was in the southeast region (down 3.6%) while the only percentage increase was in the mid-east region, which rose by 0.3%.

The number of males signing on increased in six of the country's eight regions in April. The largest percentage increase was in the border region (up 1.6%) while the smallest percentage decrease was in the south-east region (down 2.3%).

The figures also show that the number of women signing on the Live Register decreased in all regions. The largest percentage decrease was in the mid-west region (down 7.2%) while the smallest fall was in the mid-east region (down 1.6%).

'Today's redundancy figures are further evidence that labour demand is weakening as the economy slows', commented FÁS economist Brian McCormick.

He said that despite the apparent pause in April, the underlying trend in the numbers signing on continues to be upward.

'Indeed, further increases can be expected in the short-term, with the total number signing on likely to exceed 250,000 by early 2009. We are forecasting
the unemployment rate to average 5.5% in 2008 and 6.6% in 2009,' he said.

Ulster Bank Economist Lynsey Clemenger says given that the March figures were exaggerated by the early timing of Easter, some fall-off in April was anticipated. However, the economist added that the decline of 200 is somewhat below what the bank would have expected.

The bank says that the number of women claiming unemployment benefit fell by 2,200, which offset some, but by no means all, of the 6,000 rise last month.

'Therefore our assertion last month that the sharp increase in female's signing on provided signs that job losses are spreading into the services sector, still holds. Indeed, we expect this trend to continue in coming months,' a statement from the bank adds.

Alan McQuaid from Bloxhams says that although there was a slight improvement in April, the seasonally-adjusted Live Register has still increased by just over 28,000 in the first four months of 2008.

'This suggests that the slowdown in construction activity and the weakening manufacturing sector are starting to be reflected in the data, and the likelihood is that things will get worse before they get better. Indeed, year-on-year there were 41,300 more people signing on in April 2008 than in April 2007,' he adds.

He says that while the Live Register data may lead some to conclude that unemployment has stabilised, he continues to think that the end-year seasonally-adjusted total will be running well over 200,000 at around 225,000, with the jobless rate set to rise to 6% or higher over the next 12 to 18 months.

Meanwhile, new figures from the Department of Enterprise, Trade and Employment show that there was over 11,000 redundancies since the start of 2008, a 27% increase on the same time last year.

A total of 3,179 redundancies were recorded in April. The biggest job losses were seen in the building and civiil engineering sectors, with 742 jobs cut.

Manufacturing saw a cut of 710 jobs, while what the department called 'other services' - which would include retailers - saw a massive 1,222 jobs lost.