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Live Register declines by 1,000

Live Register - Midlands increase
Live Register - Midlands increase

The number of people claiming unemployment benefit fell slightly in August, new figures from the Central Statistics Office show.

On a seasonally-adjusted basis, the live register, which measures the number of people claiming jobseekers' benefit and assistance, fell to 162,000, a fall of 1000 on the previous month.

This compares with a gain of 800 in July.

In August the standardised unemployment rate was 4.7%, compared to 4.6% in July.

In the year to August there was an unadjusted increase of 4,592 people on the live register, a 2.7% increase on the year.

This is down from an unadjusted increase of 5,647, or an increase of 3.3%, for the year to July.

The largest percentage falls on the register were in the Border and South-East regions (both fell 0.9%), while the largest increase was in the Midlands at 1.3%.

On a county level, the biggest falls were in Cavan (-2%) and Kilkenny (-1.8%), and the biggest gains were made in Laoighis (2.4%) and Longford (2.3%).

The live register is not a measure of the actual number of people unable to find work as it also includes part-time, seasonal and casual workers.

Davy Stockbrokers said that the layoffs may have been delayed last month and rate of immigration may have slowed.

Companies in the construction sector are still hoarding workers, but those job losses have been postponed rather than cancelled, they said in a research note.
House completions have started to fall (-35% yoy in July), so workers are bound to be laid off it said.

'The crucial question is whether the rate of immigration slows. If labour force growth moderates in line with employment, the unemployment rate will not spike', is said.

Dermot O'Leary, chief economist with Goodbody Stockbrokers, pointed out that the breakdown of the data by sex reveal that the number of females has decreased over the past year by 2,000, while the number of males on the Register has increased by 6,500.

'Given that 95% of construction workers are male, it can be reasonably assumed that a significant proportion of the increase is due to this clearly slowing sector', he said.

He added that the increase in female employment is largely in part-time employment in sectors such as education and health.

He expects an unemployment rate of 5.1% by the end of the year, ticking up to 6% by the end of 2008.