History repeating itself
UCD against Waterford FC at Richmond Park on a November night, with Premier Division soccer the prize on offer.
Last season it was the Students making the short journey to Inchicore having come through the First Division segment of the play-offs.
Waterford were the top flight side and although they had managed to amass 42 points in the regular season, it would end up creating an unwanted record for the squad - the most points secured by a side relegated from the Premier Division.
That night at Inchicore it was two former Waterford players - Dara Keane and Colm Whelan - who scored the crucial goals to send College up.
Waterford a different animal in 2023
Things are a bit different this year, with the roles somewhat reversed.
The Blues were without a win in five games last year ahead of the season-defining game, but were still expected to have enough for UCD, despite firing manager Marc Bircham just a few days before the game.
Favourites again this time around, the Munster side come to Dublin having won eight of their last 10 games in all competitions. In that time they've scored 28 goals, and knocked Dundalk - who finished third in the Premier with the same points total as Derry above them - out of the Extra.ie FAI Cup.
Phoenix Patterson was the First Division's top goalscorer with 20 goals this season, and nine in his last 10 games, but Wassim Aouachria (six goals in his last seven games) and Junior Quitirna (five goals in his last six games) also come into the fixture in dangerous form.
Watching their recent performances will surely have given UCD manager Andy Myler and his assistant Willie O'Connor some uneasy nights this week. The Blues scored 70 goals in 32 First Division games, averaging 2.19 per 90 minutes, which was more than any other club. They've added 10 goals to that total in their three play-off games so far.
With UCD having conceded 67 goals in the top flight this season, averaging 1.86 a game, Waterford will be confident that they will be able to do the business and avenge last season's relegation.
Since Danny Searle's arrival at the club in June, Waterford have lost just four games as the Blues pipped Galway to second place in the table.
Hope for College
What should act to give UCD encouragement is their own form.
They started the season with a desperate run, and it took until the 15th game for them to finally earn a victory. They had lost nine of their previous 14, including the concession of 10 goals in back-to-back defeats against Derry City and Bohemians.
Star striker Colm Whelan injured his cruciate ligament in May, while July saw Eric Yoro leave for Bolton and playmaker Liam Kerrigan head for the slightly more salubrious surroundings of Lombardy as he signed for Como.
But Andy Myler - who will be back on the touchline after serving a four-game suspension - has managed to get some consistency from his side. With an ever depleted squad - which lost defender John Ryan to Sassuolo in September - the players left behind have come together and started to put in some really big performances.
The week before Waterford beat Dundalk in the cup, College did the same in the league, twice coming from behind a stirring 3-2 victory at the Bowl.
The 10 points from a possible 12 they managed against Finn Harps unquestionably decided the placings of those two teams after 36 games, but UCD showed a clear improvement as the season went on, picking up points at Tolka Park and Head in the Game Park, as well as an impressive three points from the Showgrounds.
For the final third of the campaign only the top four managed more points than the Students as they lifted themselves off the foot of the table to take ninth spot.
Other players have had to step up and fill the void left by Whelan's injury, with Tommy Lonergan scoring six goals in the top flight since his club debut in mid-May.
In getting to this stage, Myler and his players have achieved more than many thought they would this season. They now have the chance to become the first group of players representing the university to do consecutive seasons in the top flight since the 2013 crop, who went down the following year after the club had spent five seasons in the Premier Division.
Familiar UCD preparing for a much-changed Waterford side
It hasn't just been a change at management level at the RSC this season, with just three of the players - Patterson, Quitirna and Darragh Power - who started last year's play-off defeat to Friday's opponents still in regular rotation at the club. Shane Griffin and Niall O'Keeffe both came on as substitutes that night but they have both been regulars in Searle's team this season.
It's a bit different for UCD, who could have as many as eight players who started last year's play-off in line to do the same thing again this time around. Paul Doyle moved to Dundalk, while Whelan and Kerrigan's absences have been explained above. Mark Dignam and particularly Evan Caffrey, both on the bench for last year's play-off, will be fighting hard for a starting place having impressed this season.
One sequence set to end
One thing is certain, and that is that something will have to give because of the form below.
Waterford's play-off record:
92/93 lost 5-3 to Monaghan United
96/97 lost 3-1 to Dundalk
99/00 lost 2-0 to Kilkenny City
2006 lost 3-2 to Dundalk
2007 lost 6-3 to Finn Harps
2010 lost 3-1 to Monaghan United
2012 lost 4-2 to Dundalk
2021 lost 2-1 to UCD
Looking at Waterford's play-off record stretching back to the early 1990s, they've lost eight on the bounce. Of late though, the First Division side has tended to win this game, with UCD's victory last season, and Longford upsetting Shelbourne the year before.
You have to go back to Finn Harps' win over Drogheda United in 2019 for the last time the top flight club has managed to retain their status.
Penalties might also come into play, with the match having to be decided on the night.
But they might not come after extra-time. It's worth remembering that UCD gave away more spot kicks than any other club in the Premier Division this season - 10 - and, although Myler often spoke of his frustration at how borderline decisions tended to go against his side, it's a statistic his players will be all too aware of ahead of the game.
They showed great bottle last season to come from behind to beat Waterford, and it's been a theme of their run in this year, as they gained 18 points in games this season that they had fallen behind in.
Expert view
Former Republic of Ireland international Keith Treacy spoke on this week's RTÉ Soccer Podcast, and backed Waterford to get over the line.
"I tipped UCD to get into the play-off battle, but I think Waterford will beat them," he said.
"Not to the point that I think it would be a massive upset if UCD were to beat Waterford. I would tip Waterford on the attacking balance.
"UCD just seem to have that resilience. To go up to Ballybofey and win that game up there, that was outstanding. To go to Inchicore and beat Waterford, it's not beyond the realms of possibility.
"I just think Waterford are a bit too slick up front, they're really, really good. Some of the older heads in the dressing room; Eddie Nolan is still there, Alex Baptiste. These are players that have been around in England as well that just know the league, know how to play football.
"These types of occasions won't phase them and they'll be filtering that down to the young lads. I expect Waterford to win the game, but by no means easily."
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