The old ‘you never know which France are going to turn up’ cliché simply doesn’t apply to games where Ireland are concerned.
That saying originates from erratic French performances all right, but they just don't come against Irish teams.
On their day, France can beat New Zealand; on another day, the All Blacks can put up a record score on Les Bleus.
They can edge past England or lose by 20. Against Italy, they might not be up for it.
But it’s almost always the same story against Ireland.
The last five Six Nations meetings have an aggregate score of 79-71 in Ireland’s favour. That’s eight points over 400 minutes of action, including two draws.
There’s the anomaly of the World Cup result in 2015 but, aside from that 24-9 scoreline, since 1975, Ireland have just one win by more than a score.
That came in the Grand Slam year of 2009 when a 78th-minute Ronan O’Gara penalty pushed the margin to nine points, 30-21.
That’s one occasion, over 39 games, where Ireland have been two scores up going into the final passage of play.
So Joe Schmidt and his side know exactly what France is going to turn up.
The powerful, skillful and very dangerous one that always rocks up against today's hosts (4.50pm, live on RTÉ Radio 1 and RTÉ2).
So the real question is, can Ireland deal with what Les Bleus are going to bring?
The answer is yes – if they can execute their game plan to perfection.
HERE’S JOHNNY!
Schmidt rates Johnny Sexton’s fitness percentage as “in the 90s”.
The New Zealander knows that if Ireland are to execute to the required level – knowing, instinctively, when to chip, grubber, launch, pass, dummy, shuffle, blitz, etc – then his number one number 10, at 90pc fitness after a calf strain, must be in position to lead the line.
His experience, stature and game management, not required in the last round against Italy, will be indispensable here.
“He’s obviously a leader within the team,” said Schmidt upon recalling Sexton for his 64th cap.
Paddy Jackson, if needed, can close it out.
Sexton, who has completed just two of his last 28 internationals, has been the unfortunate victim of profiling by France teams in the past but targeting the out-half has always been a part of the game.
A little bit more protection from the back row wouldn’t go astray this afternoon.
Certainly Conor Murray at scrum-half has the nous and ability to take some of the kicking pressures off Sexton, who, as it happens, returned from 12-week lay-off in 2015 to boot Ireland to victory in that year’s fixture.
Indeed, no matter the conditions, moving the French around the place will be key.
It’s not that they are heavier than Ireland – the home side’s forwards are actually one 1kg heavier per man on average than France – it’s that they are seen as more cumbersome.
BACK ROW BATTLE
That, of course, doesn’t apply to all and in Louis Picamoles, France have a force of nature.
The 31-year-old beat more defenders (13) and made more metres (201) and offloads (7) than any other player in the opening two rounds. Keeping the Northampton number 8 quiet is half the battle.
On the Irish side, Munster back row CJ Stander has made 46 carries so far this year, nine more than any other player to this point.
"It's their ability to play fast and well," said France forwards coach Yannick Bru, of Ireland's back-row's qualities.
That battle should be fascinating.
END GAME
With Ireland’s bench boasting Cian Healy, Peter O’Mahony and Iain Henderson, Schmidt has a mind to infuse the side with high-energy players in the final stages.
The 2014 and 2015 champions' starting XV has almost double the number of caps as France (700 compared to 387), and there is even more disparity on the bench where the France total is 83 and Ireland’s is 234.
“The last 30 minutes of the match is going to be very, very highly contested,” was how Schmidt put it.
If, to that point, the French have been starved of possession and territory, have been chasing rather than attacking, then gaps will appear, tackles can slip off, and the old dogs will come to the fore.
Here's the Ireland team to play France #TeamOfUs #ShoulderToShoulder pic.twitter.com/V9apnh9IOO
— Irish Rugby (@IrishRugby) February 23, 2017
EXTRA TIME
One unusual aspect that Ireland will have to contend with is the new FFR policy that allows France to have their players in camp the week before an international as opposed to playing with their club.
Bernard Jackman, speaking on RTÉ 2fm’s Game On recently, said: "They have the ideal environment now to prepare.
"If you believe preparation is important, which 90 per cent of us do, then you say, ‘well, hang on, that’s going to get that extra three or four per cent out of them’.”
So Ireland can’t rely on the hope that their opponents are not fine-tuned or have their mind on Top 14 business.
In games that are virtually always decided by a score, that extra percentage has to be taken into account. Ireland must find their own extras to negate it.
#XVdeFrance Découvrez votre XV de départ pour le match en Irlande avec 3 changements au coup d'envoi! #soutienslexv pic.twitter.com/fi8GrOCa9H
— FF Rugby (@FFRugby) February 23, 2017
In team news, both sides make three changes to the sides that beat Italy and Scotland respectively.
Sexton, captain Rory Best and Jack McGrath come in for Ireland, while prop Rabah Slimani, flanker Bernard Le Roux and winger Yoann Huget are the fresh French faces, all "logical" changes, according to Noves.
There’s no danger of complacency creeping in on the back of a nine-try win in Italy.
The Rome rout will have blown out some of the cobwebs of the sins in Scotland but the hurt of the opening-day defeat will still provide motivation for Ireland.
That, combined with home advantage, a more familiar referee in Nigel Owens, and a team further along in their development, tips the balance in Ireland’s favour.
Watch Scotland v Wales and Ireland v France live on RTÉ2 from 2pm Saturday, listen live on Radio 1 Saturday Sport and follow our live blog on RTÉ Sport Online.
Watch Ireland U20 v France U20 live on RTÉ2 from 8pm Friday. Watch Ireland Women v France Women live on RTÉ2 from 12.30pm Sunday and listen live on LW252 and Radio 1 Extra. Follow live blogs on RTÉ Sport Online.
