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Bye-elections: 5 takeaways as electoral picture emerges

Independent Ireland candidate Noel Thomas (left) with Independent Ireland TD Michael Collins
Noel Thomas of Independent Ireland topped the poll in Galway West

RTÉ's Political Correspondent Mícheál Lehane runs through five takeaways as counting continues in the bye-elections in Dublin Central and Galway West and the electoral picture becomes clearer.


1: Social Democrats' soaring

The votes are still being counted, but it's clear that Daniel Ennis is on his way to the Dáil next Tuesday.

His victory in Dublin Central will mark an important milestone for the Social Democrats.

It will be the first constituency where the party will hold two seats.

More significantly, it will put the Social Democrats ahead of Labour in the Dáil's pecking order.

That means more prominent speaking slots.

Social Democrats leader Holly Cairns, Dublin Central by-election candidate Daniel Ennis and sitting Dublin Central TD Gary Gannon
Daniel Ennis of the Social Democrats topped the Dublin Central poll

2: Fianna Fáil failure

Fianna Fáil began the day with low expectations in Dublin Central.

These fears were justified, and the 4.2% showing for John Stephens was a new low for the party.

Things look a bit healthier in Galway West but the party never got close to the shake-up either.

Micheál Martin has pledged a party reflection on these results.

His leadership may well come under the spotlight again when TDs and Senators meet in Leinster House next week.

Ultimately, the proximity of the upcoming EU Presidency will probably keep the circling wolves at bay for just a little longer.

3: Sinn Féin fizzled out

Sinn Féin has failed to land a blow in two bye-elections which came at a time of major public discontent over the cost of living.

All this despite the fact that the party raises the issue almost every Dáil sitting day when it speaks during Leaders' Questions.

Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald at the RDS.
Mary Lou McDonald said that her party is 'building' despite the party failing to top the poll in her constituency

The message is, on the evidence of these elections, not landing with the electorate.

That poses a challenge for the party leader who insisted this afternoon that her position is not in peril.

After all, she was ratified in that role once again at the party's Ard Fheis just three weeks ago.

4: Protests play out electorally

The Galway West count still has a distance to travel.

Interestingly, two parties on the opposite side of the tumultuous Easter fuel protests are vying for the seat.

Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas was prominent during those demonstrations, and he was narrowly ahead after the opening count.

However, Fine Gael's Seán Kyne is snapping at his heals, raising the strong possibility that a Government candidate could actually win the bye-election.

Taoiseach Micheal Martin at the Galway West count centre.
Fianna Fáil's vote in Dublin Central was a new low for the party

All this comes only a few weeks after those days of national upheaval and the palpable anger towards the Government on the streets.

It is quite a political riddle.

5: Indefatigable Independents

The independent vote in Dublin Central of 21.6% was up by more than 7 percentage points.

That is largely due to the presence of Gerry Hutch and Malachy Steenson.

While immigration was not the top issue in this constituency this time around, both candidates have always been outspoken on this topic.

Their combined vote suggests that a TD campaigning on this contentious subject could well be in the hunt to win a seat here at the next general election.