skip to main content

Worst-case Brexit scenario is no longer conjecture

Leo Varadkar's every word zipped across international TV stations, social media and websites.

Curiously, the Taoiseach was simply repeating his Brexit mantra, this time before leading business figures at the British Irish Chamber of Commerce.

Leo Varadkar’s message was largely unaltered from his previous statements or those by his Government colleagues.

But the prediction regarding what happens to Ireland in a no-deal Brexit has moved from being conjecture to a very likely outcome.

There have been a series of economic forecasts sketching out the potential impact of an abrupt departure by Britain on the Irish economy. These predictions have not changed.

What has changed is that people are paying much more attention than before as the Brexit clock ticks down.

Mr Varadkar, Tánaiste Simon Coveney and Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe are highlighting the bleak risks with greater frequency and more emphasis than in the past.

In July, the Government confirmed that there would be checks on goods coming from Northern Ireland to the Republic.

That was a critical moment because it was the first acknowledgement that there would be inspections.

In his speech on Thursday night, Leo Varadkar said there would be checks on goods and live animals and, as far as possible, they will take place in ports, airports and at businesses.

He added: "But some may need to take place near the border. We are working out the details of this with the European Commission and we will inform the public and businesses as soon as we know what the outcome will be."

Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald responded that "any imposition of custom checks is completely unacceptable".

She added it was "political vandalism which grossly undermines the Good Friday Agreement".

This is the issue that is going to dominate political debate over the coming weeks.

Any examination of goods would fly in the face of the peace pact that has copper-fastened the settlement on the island.

However, in a no-deal Brexit the Irish authorities are obliged to monitor goods crossing the border in order to satisfy the rules of the EU’s single market.

The Government was reminded of that by Joachim Lang the head of the Federation of German Industries this week when he spoke at the Institute of International and European Affairs in Dublin.

He said any policy that lets goods and services flow into the EU market without any checks will put the level playing field enjoyed by member states at risk.

RTÉ's Europe Editor Tony Connelly has reported that any checks and controls on the border could be introduced on a gradual basis.

Perhaps officials in Brussels hope by adopting a "softly softly" approach they may be able to address the issue in an inconspicuous manner.

While there will be political pressure on Leo Varadkar and his team to clarify where checks will be following Brexit, it is clear those details are still under negotiation with the European Commission.

That is why every utterance by the Taoiseach and his colleagues will be parsed and analysed for any new details over the coming weeks.

When the Dáil reconvenes on 17 September expect ministers to tread carefully.