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Voters divided between Martin or McDonald as taoiseach preference

Micheál Martin and Mary Lou McDonald seen during the leader's debate on RTÉ
Micheál Martin and Mary Lou McDonald seen during the leader's debate on RTÉ

Voters are divided on whether they would prefer Micheál Martin or Mary Lou McDonald to become the next taoiseach, with just one percentage point difference between the proportion of people who want the Fianna Fáil or Sinn Féin leader to lead the next government.

Some 35% of poll respondents said Micheál Martin, 34% said Mary Lou McDonald, while 27% said they would like to see Fine Gael leader Simon Harris as the next taoiseach.

5% of those asked gave no response.

The data was compiled for an RTÉ, The Irish Times, TG4 and Trinity College Dublin exit poll conducted by Ipsos B&A.

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Age breakdowns

Among 18-24 year olds, Mary Lou McDonald is the most popular choice at 59%, followed by Micheál Martin (20%) and Simon Harris (16%).

Among 25-34 year olds, the breakdown is Mary Lou McDonald (56%), Micheál Martin (28%) and Simon Harris (13%).

For 35-48 year olds it is Micheál Martin (34%), Mary Lou McDonald (33%) and Simon Harris (26%).

Data was complied from RTÉ, The Irish Times, TG4, Trinity College Dublin EXIT POLL carried out by Ipsos B&A

While 36% of 50-64 year olds said Micheál Martin, 31% Simon Harris and 27% Mary Lou McDonald.

Exit poll respondents aged 65 or over, ranked the three party leaders at 46%, 36% and 15% for Micheál Martin, Simon Harris, and Mary Lou McDonald respectively.

Regional breakdown

In Dublin, Mary Lou McDonald is the most popular choice at 41%, followed by Micheál Martin on 29% and Simon Harris on 24%.

In the rest of Leinster, the breakdown is Micheál Martin at 40%, Mary Lou McDonald at 27% and Simon Harris at 26%.

In Munster, it is Micheál Martin at 42%, Simon Harris at 30% and Mary Lou McDonald at 25%.

And in Connacht/Ulster, it is Mary Lou McDonald at 46%, Simon Harris at 26% and Micheál Martin at 25%.

Smaller party voters

Respondents who said they gave their first preferences to the Green Party would prefer to see Micheál Martin (51%) lead the next government, over Simon Harris (31%) or Mary Lou McDonald (12%).

For Labour, the figures are Micheál Martin (36%), Simon Harris (33%) and Mary Lou McDonald (22%).

The order of preference is different for Social Democrats voters, who ranked Mary Lou McDonald first at 40%, and Micheál Martin and Simon Harris equal second at 24%.

The Exit Poll was carried out in-person outside 253 polling stations covering each of the 43 Dáil constituencies.

The sample size was 5,018, and the margin of error 1.4%.


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