A few days ago I suggested this might be the most boring election ever. Well, it is now about to move into "game on" territory, writes RTÉ's Brian Dowling.
On the back of last night's Irish Sun/ Red C poll, Fine Gael has a huge battle in the days ahead.
Down to 26%, it needs to take its campaign by the scruff of the neck if it wants to get back anywhere near 30%.
On the basis of this poll, figures compiled for RTÉ by Sean Donnelly suggest that Fine Gael would only win 45 seats, with Labour on 13 seats (based on 9%).
That is just 58 seats and a long, long way from the minimum 79 needed.
Fianna Fáil with 19% would, on Donnelly’s estimate, win 33 seats.
Even together the two big parties would be short by one seat. That is saying something.
Fine Gael Director of Elections and MEP Brian Hayes remarked recently that "the trend is your friend" and with good reason.
At that point Fine Gael had settled into 30-31% support in most polls and it positioned the party strongly for the campaign ahead.
This has changed. In the recent sequence of Red C polls – for the Sunday Business Post, Paddy Power and last night for the Irish Sun – the trend is now a most unwelcome friend.
You can take last night's poll and say Fine Gael is down two points on the Sunday Business Post/ Red C poll and look at it in that context alone. 2% is within the margin of error of +/- 3%.
Interesting though that is, it is not the full story...
For the full story this latest Red C poll has to be set against comparable polls in November and December last year – the very polls that showed a "friendly" trend for Fine Gael.
Back then the party was hitting 30% plus – it peaked at 32% at the end of the year and held on to 31% into the beginning of the campaign.
In the space of barely two weeks, it has dropped five points. Compared to the December high of 32% it is down six points – twice the margin of error.
Since the election started, Fine Gael is losing support at a worrying rate for the party – at least as measured by Red C.
It remains to be seen if this is reflected in other polls.
Red C has produced five polls since the beginning of the year and seven if December is included. It is quite a cluster of polls over a relatively short period.
If Red C is indeed capturing a mood among the public, then what has happened in such a short space of time?
Well, for starters there is no doubt the Fine Gael campaign got off to a bad start, right from day one.
The party had access to extensive research in planning the election, helped by Washington-based firm Greenberg Quinlan and Rosner, plus their own teams.
The party messages and policies have been tested with focus groups.
So one might have expected it would be striking the right chord with voters from the off.
So why is this not happening? There might be two factors at play.
Firstly, we have emerged from several very tough years of austerity and there is little doubt that the public wants some financial relief.
But do potential Fine Gael voters feel the time is right for the amount the party is offering?
It was clear listening to the audience reaction on the seven-way debate that there is still a residual anger over the economic crash.
Maybe, there is also a residual fear. People hear the background music – they hear the talk of an economic slowdown in China, the risk of Brexit and the recent turmoil in markets.
Is it possible that some voters – the very ones Fine Gael is looking to – are spooked by the thought that the progress of recent years could be lost by a splurge of promises.
The second factor may relate to Fianna Fáil.
In spite of the legacy boulder he is carrying on his shoulder Micheál Martin has become increasingly relevant to the election outcome.
The mere fact that Fine Gael have targeted him so consistently suggests a concern about potential Fianna Fáil support.
No one expects there is a runaway train waiting to carry Fianna Fáil back to the glory days of 30% plus support.
But maybe the concern Fine Gael identified is that there might be a slow, but steady, trickle of votes – the ones “on loan” from 2011 – going back home.
The above factors are supposition – no one can be totally certain as to what factors or what combination of factors have impacted on Fine Gael.
But in this sequence of Red C polls the party is sliding backwards.
It may be possible to halt the slide.
But it will take a big shift in campaign strategy to do this and recover the ground lost.
There is some solace for Labour, up a point to 9%. Still, single figures is not where the party needs to be at this stage.
It is also bad news for Sinn Féin, dropping three points to 17%, with Independents/ Others the biggest winners moving up three points to 29%.
By RTÉ Political Reporter Brian Dowling
