The Chief Medical Officer has rejected the idea that testing rather than full vaccination could be used to pave the way for the reopening of indoor hospitality.
Dr Tony Holohan briefed opposition leaders this afternoon about the National Public Health Emergency Team's advice to Government on Monday.
He said that without vaccination certs, indoor dining and drinking could have remained shut beyond September.
When questioned about NPHET's modelling projections he said they were in line with research carried out in Scotland.
The CMO said that he did not see any reason why the projections could not be peer reviewed.
He said that it should be possible to quickly introduce a vaccination certificate system given that work is already well advanced on the EU Digital Covid Cert.
Opposition leaders were also told by Dr Holohan that the NPHET projections did not factor in potential impact of the updated advice from the National Immunisation Advisory Committee.
It recommended that the AstraZeneca vaccine dose gap be reduced from eight to four weeks and that under 50s can be given the AstraZeneca and Janssen (Johnson & Johnson) vaccines.
A spokesperson for the Taoiseach has said that it was always understood that the latest NIAC advice on vaccinations was not factored into NPHET's projections to Government.
It follows claims that a minister was told during yesterday's Cabinet meeting that the planned changes to speed up the vaccination of younger people were part of the projections.
The spokesperson said the NIAC advice could not be used in the NPHET modelling because the updated vaccination programme has not been finalised yet.
This can only happen when vaccine supplies are confirmed, they said.
They said this was clear from NPHET's letter to Government on Monday night.
The letter said "the vaccination programme is included in the model according to the latest available estimates of vaccine supply and administration, and published estimates of vaccine effectiveness in preventing infection and severe disease."
Opposition leaders told by Chief Medical Officer that the NPHET projections did not factor in potential impact of the NIAC advice to cut second dose times to 4 weeks and to allow under 50s get AstraZeneca and J&J vaccines
— Mícheál Lehane (@MichealLehane) June 30, 2021
Meanwhile, the head of NPHET's Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group has warned that the likely impact of the Delta variant is stark, and caution is well advised.
In a series of tweets, Professor Philip Nolan details the methodology and assumptions behind the modelling which produced the figures on which the decision to defer the reopening of indoor hospitality is based.
He said a variant with a transmission advantage can do very significant damage if it is let spread in a partially vaccinated population. The scale of the damage depends on the transmission advantage, and it starts slowly and escalates rapidly.
It has been a difficult and disappointing week for many, as the rise to dominance of the delta variant has delayed plans for wider reopening; but the likely impact of delta is stark, and caution is well advised. 1/36 pic.twitter.com/ThDA2zhAfb
— Professor Philip Nolan (@President_MU) June 30, 2021
Right to delay reopening of indoor hospitality - Martin
The Taoiseach has said the Delta variant is a challenging one that creates risks, but insisted it was the right decision to pause the reopening of indoor hospitality.
Micheál Martin told the Dáil that NPHET gave the Government stark warnings about hospitalisations and deaths arising from this variant.
He said Covid-19 has been devastating for the hospitality sector and society in general and vaccinations are the most effective weapon against it.
There are hopes the link between cases and hospitalisations is being broken, the Taoiseach said, but that is not certain yet and Covid-19 can never be underestimated.
"We don't want to divide society. We want to protect people," he said.
Sinn Féin accused the Government of pursuing a plan that gives zero consideration to young people.
Party leader Mary Lou McDonald said the hospitality sector had been marched to the top of the hill and down again amid chaos in Government.
She said young people have been told they can serve their elders but they cannot have a drink or meal themselves afterwards and this is divisive.
Ms McDonald said the Government was stubbornly failing to look at the obvious solution, which was antigen testing.
The Taoiseach said the Government understands the impact on young people and NIAC advice will help them to get vaccinated quicker.
Taoiseach Micheál Martin says everybody should take on board that the Delta variant is a serious issue. Whether we like it or not, that is the essence of the advice from NPHET, he says. | Read more #politics: https://t.co/EnntBz9G8M pic.twitter.com/x5dMbvyzPz
— RTÉ News (@rtenews) June 30, 2021
In response to a question from Labour leader Alan Kelly, Mr Martin said the testing for Covid-19 could be included in arrangements to allow people access indoor services in bars and restaurants.
Mr Kelly accused the Government of discrimination whilst holding up an antigen test kit in the Dáil.
Mr Martin said: "NPHET is independent of Government. We might not like its advice from time to time. It is up to Government to decide. Now we have to work with the industry to see how we proceed, including testing."
Tánaiste 'hopes' NPHET is wrong, but risks too high
The Tánaiste has said he hoped that NPHET's worst case scenario is too pessimistic and turns out to be wrong, but the balance of risk is currently very high.
Leo Varadkar said the next three weeks would be used to accelerate the vaccine programme and to monitor the Delta wave based on what is happening in the UK.
NPHET has warned that, according to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, modelling scenarios indicate that any relaxation of measures that were in place in June in the European Union could lead to a fast and significant increase in daily cases in all age groups.
A letter to Government outlined five separate scenarios, with possible outcomes from "Optimistic" with 250 deaths between 1 July and 30 September to "Pessimistic" with 2,170 deaths from Covid-19.
Speaking on RTÉ's Morning Ireland, Mr Varadkar said the situation is very unfair to young people, but the best thing that can be done for them is to make sure they are vaccinated.
"I don't think anything is fair about this pandemic, but this is the reality," he said.
Mr Varadkar said the Government understands the announcement on delaying reopening was a surprise for many people and it will take time now to explain the modelling provided that led to the decision.
He said he is going to sit down with the hospitality industry and see how to make a green pass/corona pass system work, adding that there will be anomalies and details to work out, including if children under six can be exempted.
But, he said, initial advice from the Attorney General is that a vaccination certificate is lawful.
The Tanaiste @LeoVaradkar tells @morningireland says the Govt will now do 3 things: accelerate vaccine programme; monitor the delta wave; develop a corona pass for those fully vaccinated and recovered from Covid-19. @rtenews
— Paul Cunningham (@RTENewsPaulC) June 30, 2021
Govt keeping 'open mind' over negative Covid tests for indoor dining
The Tánaiste later told the Oireachtas Committee on Enterprise, Trade and Employment that the Government is "keeping an open mind" on whether to allow people who have recently tested negative for Covid-19 to dine indoors.
He was responding to Independent TD Matt Shanahan, who asked if the coalition would consider any "large scale piloting of antigens and early screen testing to try and assist hospitality in reopening".
Mr Varadkar said he hopes the more optimistic approach the UK is taking to Covid-19 restrictions turns out to be right, but the Government is not willing to take that risk at this point.
He recalled the consequences of relaxing restrictions here in December, noting the Government's response to the subsequent surge "was too late".
The "UK is taking a much more optimistic approach that we are", he told the committee, and that even though there are "20,000 cases a day", the UK government believes the link between cases and hospitalisations "is so weakened" that they can "keep indoor dining open" and possibly further relax restrictions.
Mr Varadkar said the Government would review the measures announced yesterday "in the run up" to 19 July.
While the virus cannot be eliminated, he said, the Government wants to ensure that "our hospitals don't get overwhelmed", and make sure that we do not have another wave of deaths.
Shortall in call for Covid test system
Social Democrats co-leader Róisín Shortall called for a Covid-19 test system to be introduced that would eliminate the discriminatory element of allowing only vaccinated people to avail of indoor hospitality.
Speaking on RTÉ's Morning Ireland, she said she is opposed to a situation where unvaccinated people, with no control over when they can receive a vaccine, will be denied access to hospitality.
Ms Shortall said there have been 275,000 Covid-19 cases in Ireland over the last 16 months, but NPHET's worse case scenario is predicting almost 700,000 cases over the next three months.
While this is absolute worst case scenario, she said, it must be asked how realistic this projection is and if there are any opportunities to mitigate any of the impacts.
Minister for Transport Eamon Ryan said there were intimations on Sunday evening that there were concerns over the Delta variant, but the modelling analysis that was presented on Monday left the Government in a very difficult situation.
Speaking on RTÉ's Today with Claire Byrne, he said there will be a rise in cases, more likely in August and September, but said he believes it can be managed, along with bringing hospitality back.
"It's terribly frustrating for a lot of people, they're pulling their hair out.
"But, actually, what will work in the end here is a consistent approach which allows us to keep everything open and we will do that."
On the issue of travel, Mr Ryan said Ireland is part of the European Union process.
"As an island, we cannot remain cut off," he said.
"We do have to maintain connectivity. As a country - particularly for our younger people - we need to return to having a social life, we need to return to college, we need to return to the office and other locations.
"We will have to do that at a time when cases, particularly in the coming months, are likely to rise."
Additional reporting Paul Cunningham
