A new study from the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) and the Department of Finance has found that there will be both "winners and losers" when it comes to the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI).
Here is a look at the good news and the bad news contained within the report.
Bad news - highly educated workers
The research found that adoption of AI by Irish firms is likely to lead to job losses, concentrated among highly educated workers.
This reflects the strong exposure of high-skilled occupations to AI technologies.
According to the research, around 7% of current jobs could be displaced in the short to medium term.
Good news - users of AI tools
The report found that for those who remain in work, average wages are likely to rise, reflecting productivity gains from AI tools.
According to the study, as Ireland is a country with a highly educated workforce and a strong technology sector, AI adoption presents a unique challenge and opportunity.
The researchers also point out that the report focuses on current occupational structure and could not take into account what new jobs or increased opportunities AI might generate in certain sectors.
Bad news - IT workers
In terms of the roles most at risk, the report highlights occupations consisting of tasks that can be efficiently and reliably performed by AI technology such as image recognition and translation.
Roles facing higher levels of job losses include information and communications technicians, customer services clerks and clerical support workers.
Good news - builders and refuse workers
The report found that roles that are customer-facing or physically demanding face little risk of substitution by AI.
Occupations facing lower levels of job losses include health professionals, agricultural workers, builders and refuse workers.
Other categories of workers deemed to be less exposed include chief executives, senior officials and legislators, as well as hospitality and retail workers.
Bad news - income inequality
AI adoption is likely to widen the gap between rich and poor and lead to greater income inequality, according to the report.
This will be driven by job displacement among workers whose jobs can be partially carried out using AI, wage increases for workers who become more productive through the use of AI, and increased capital income.
Capital income refers to earnings from sources other than labour such as interest, shares, dividends and investments.
An increase in this income would disproportionately benefit the highest-income households who hold most capital assets.
Mixed news - impact on the Exchequer
The report found that Ireland's tax and welfare system is well-placed to absorb most of the income losses for lower-income households in the short-term through increased welfare entitlement and reduced tax liability.
It also concludes that the fiscal impacts are highly scenario-dependent.
If employment losses are small or re-allocation of workers is fast, Exchequer revenue may increase due to productivity gains.
If job displacement is large, however, income tax receipts will fall relative to the baseline and welfare spending will rise, putting significant pressure on the public finances.
The report finds that while AI adoption will likely boost productivity and raise living standards in the long-term, upskilling, retraining and lifelong learning will be important to smooth the AI transition in the short to medium term.
Read more: AI adoption among Irish firms likely to lead to job losses - ESRI
