In the end it was a comfortable majority: 21 countries supported the EU-Mercosur agreement, Belgium abstained, and Ireland voted against, alongside France, Poland, Austria and Hungary.
It's understood the writing was on the wall not long after the meeting of EU ambassadors (known as COREPER) got underway in the Europa building in Brussels.
There were two items on the agenda: First, ambassadors would vote on the extra safeguards for farmers, negotiated before Christmas, and, secondly, on the substantive issue of the Mercosur deal itself.
During the vote on safeguards, Italy and others indicated they also would support the overall deal. At an early stage, therefore, the incoming Cyprus presidency, chairing the meeting, indicated it believed there was a so-called qualified majority in favour of the trade deal.
Italy’s switch to the pro-camp meant a blocking minority would not be possible.
Suggestions that France had lobbied Romania to step into the No camp appeared unfounded.
"Romania’s ambassador confirmed their support for the whole deal in the discussion on safeguards," said one source.
That means Ursula von der Leyen can travel to Paraguay, perhaps as early as tomorrow, to sign the agreement with the Mercosur leaders.
In reality, the Mercosur accord breaks down into two parallel agreements. There is the EU Mercosur Partnership Agreement (EMPA), essentially the overarching agreement comprising trade, political relations, research and cultural exchanges etc; and the Interim Trade Agreement (iTA).
The EMPA must be ratified by the European Parliament and all 27 member states.
The iTA, by contrast, can be applied provisionally from scratch. Under the Lisbon Treaty, trade is an EU-only competence, meaning it can be implemented provisionally by the Commission and Mercosur before the European Parliament gives its consent.
Once the EMPA is fully ratified, the iTA falls away and everything is governed by the overarching agreement.
However, the European Parliament still has to give its consent to the interim trade agreement for it to be properly ratified.
The final EU-Mercosur text, as approved by EU ambassadors, will now go to the trade committee of the European Parliament, which will produce a report ahead of a plenary vote in Strasbourg, possibly in April or May.
A simple majority will be sufficient to mean the trade aspects of Mercosur can start to take effect (if they haven’t been implemented provisionally in the meantime).
'Still all to play for in the European Parliament'
"It is still all to play for in the European Parliament for a final, decisive yes or no approval vote for the trade parts of the deal," says an EU source. "But it can, legally speaking, enter into provisional application at whatever stage [member states] decide."
For member states to agree to implement the treaty provisionally carries its own risks.
There had been an offer by the European Commission to France to hold off on provisional implementation until the Parliament had given its consent, as an inducement to bring President Emmanuel Macron on board.
However, once Macron declared his opposition on the eve of the vote, that offer appears to have been withdrawn.
Should the Cyprus Presidency propose provisional application, that could inflame sentiment in the Parliament.
Already, the far-right Patriots for Europe (PfE) has tabled a motion of censure against the Commission over the Mercosur deal which will be held at the Plenary on 22 January.
Farming organisations are also expected to step up their opposition. Further protests are expected at the next Plenary session of the European Parliament on 19 January.
Farmer 'fearful for future' as EU approves Mercosur deal
IFA president Francie Gorman said: "Our campaign will now focus on MEPs. We expect Irish MEPs to stand behind the farming community and reject the Mercosur deal.
"Our MEPs now have a crucial role to play in building alliances within their groupings and amongst colleagues from other countries to build opposition to the deal."
So far, the two largest groups in the Parliament - the centre right EPP and centre left Socialists & Democrats (S&D) - have come out in favour of Mercosur.
However, most groups are likely to split along national lines.
"There will be both a lot of scrutiny and a lot of debate now before we have the critical final ratification vote in Strasbourg," says Independent MEP Ciaran Mullooly. "The key things to watch will be the splits in the various groupings at Parliament level."
Mr Mullooly believes there are currently 200-odd MEPs who could vote against the trade agreement across the political spectrum, short of the target of 361 for a simple majority.
Should a legal challenge by some 140 MEPs to the Mercosur deal - on the basis that it was allegedly not in compliance with EU treaty rules - be successful, with a referral to the European Court of Justice (ECJ), that would hold up the Plenary vote further.
A delay might allow opposition to further develop. However, such a legal challenge would also require the support of a majority of MEPs - not a given.
Despite the EPP being formally in favour of Mercosur, its four Fine Gael members will have to decide whether to support the Irish Government line and oppose Mercosur in the European Parliament.
Regina Doherty has already stated she will vote for the agreement. Nina Carberry and Maria Walsh will vote against while Sean Kelly has not yet shown his hand.
Sinn Féin MEPs Lynn Boylan and Kathleen Funchion will vote against, as will Luke Ming Flanagan, Ciaran Mullooly and Michael McNamara.
Fianna Fáil’s Barry Cowen, Billy Kelleher and Cynthia Ní Mhurchú will oppose the deal, while Barry Andrew’s MEP says he will vote in favour.
"Geopolitically and economically, this is a very bad move for Ireland [to oppose Mercosur]," said Mr Andrews.
"Everybody knows the agricultural sector and the beef industry in particular had their say throughout the 25-year negotiation, including up to 24 hours ago [in terms of safeguards], and it's still not good enough.
"There are so many thousands of other jobs in the future that are dependent on us making sure that we have the capacity to develop free trade agreements. As a country that exports 90% of what we produce, it makes no sense whatsoever."
Will the coalition leaders pressure their MEPs into voting against Mercosur?
Minister for Culture Patrick O'Donovan said Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael MEPs would oppose the agreement saying coalition MEPs were "bound" by the Programme for Government and the decision by Minister for Agriculture Martin Heydon not to support the deal.
However, Ms Doherty said that "I don't think we’re bound by any Programme for Government. That’s never happened before."
That means that if the Government has burned political capital at EU level in voting against Mercosur during this morning’s meeting, then it could keep doing that by keeping up weeks of pressure on any recalcitrant MEPs who intend to vote in favour.
There is considerable dismay at EU level that concessions to Ireland over the Nitrates derogation, as well as the safeguards for farmers announced in recent weeks, did not move the dial in terms of the Government’s support.
Taoiseach Mícheal Martin lobbied Commission president Ursula von der Leyen directly on the nitrates issue, and won an extension to the derogation that is enjoyed by no other member state.
There is also an impression that Dublin failed to enthusiastically extoll the merits of Mercosur, both for the EU’s geopolitical relevance, and for the sectors of the Irish economy that would benefit - including the dairy industry.
That deepened that dismay, especially given the events in Venezuela in recent days, and the Trump administration’s determination to trample over international law.
"The broader the support for Mercosur, and the fewer votes against, the better it looks," said one EU diplomat on the eve of the vote.
"In the current geopolitical context, and what is happening on the American continent, it would be an important sign to show Europe is as united as possible on such a crucial matter."
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