Ireland will require thousands of additional healthcare workers by 2040 according new research from the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
The report projects significant increases in Health Service Executive primary and community care workforce requirements, both nationally and regionally.
The research, funded by the HSE, considered a range of scenarios reflecting different assumptions about population growth and ageing, as well as changes in the mix of workforce involved in delivering care.
The services examined included audiology, dietetics, occupational therapy, physiotherapy, podiatry, speech and language therapy and public health and community nursing.
In 2022, these services were delivered by a workforce of approximately 5,650 whole time equivalent (WTE) staff.
Driven by projected demographic change, particularly population ageing, workforce requirements for all staff categories examined are projected to increase substantially by 2040.
The research found that up to 2,231 additional public health and community nurses are projected to be required by 2040, representing average annual growth of 3%.
The largest increases in workforce requirements were projected for services that currently focus on older people in the community, namely audiologists, occupational therapists, podiatrists and public health and community nurses.
For the remaining professions, dietitians, physiotherapists and speech and language therapists, average annual growth requirements are projected to range between 1% and 2.1% to 2040.
For most services, the largest projected increases in workforce requirements were observed in regions located in the east of the country.
"Our findings show that substantial expansion of the HSE Primary and Community Care workforce will be required across all regions and across all staff categories examined in this report," said Dr Aoife Brick, Senior Research Officer at the ESRI, and lead author of the report.
"In the context of ongoing Sláintecare implementation, policymakers will need to consider how best to increase workforce supply, alongside measures to manage future service demand, to address these emerging pressures," Dr Brick said.
Anne Marie Hoey, Chief People Officer at the HSE, said the report will support engagement with funders and stakeholders on the medium and long-term planning required to ensure the service has the workforce needed to deliver care.
"In parallel, the HSE is already working closely with the Department of Health and other government partners to develop solutions to grow the domestic workforce," Ms Hoey said.
Minister for Health, Jennifer Carroll MacNeill welcomed the ESRI report.
"Sláintecare is working to build a health and social care service that is sustainable for the future," Ms Carroll MacNeill said.
"Increasing capacity, both in terms of workforce and infrastructure, along with productivity measures is key to address Ireland's long-term demographic challenges."
"These projections support our planning efforts to build capacity by understanding future workforce requirements to meet the needs of our people," she added.
