Another poll (the last?) provides the basis for this further update.
This morning's poll from RED C/Paddy Power for which polling was done Thursday to Sunday confirms the upward trend in Fianna Fáil, the downward trend in Sinn Féin and the refusal of Independents to "fade away" as the real decision is imminent.
Again I provide an additional Poll of Polls based just on 2016, the 15 polls that have been conducted since the start of January.
This series is of course much shorter, and the final outcome is much more dependent on the last few in the series than is the case with the more comprehensive set used.
Seat predictions based on either approach to the Poll of Polls leave the Government well short even of 70 seats, but both would give Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil a clear majority should they agree to combine in government.
The shorter time span is better for Fianna Fáil by four seats and worse for Sinn Féin, also by four seats.
Labour may still be overestimated on 12 seats given only 7% of the vote.
My model gives them a bonus of four seats relative to their size, because that is what has happened consistently since 1981, but it could be different this time and the 12 is certainly an upper estimate.
Based on 2011-2016 polls
Based on 2011-2016 polls, the % of votes is: Fine Gael 28%, Fianna Fáil 20%, Sinn Féin 17%, Labour 7%, PBP 4%, Social Democrats 4%, Green Party 3%, Renua 2%, Independent Alliance 3% and Others 14%.
Seat predictions are: Fine Gael 53, Fianna Fáil 33, Sinn Féin 27, Labour 12, PBP four, Social Democrats five, Green Party two, Renua two, Independent Alliance three, Others 17.
Based on 2016 polls
Based on just the 2016 polls, the % of votes is: Fine Gael 29%, Fianna Fáil 22%, Sinn Féin 15%, Labour 7%, PBP 3%, Social Democrats 4%, Green Party, 2%, Renua 2%, Independent Alliance 3% and Others 14%.
Seat predications are: Fine Gael 55, Fianna Fáil 37, Sinn Féin 23, Labour 12, PBP three, Social Democrats five, Green Party two, Renua one, Independent Alliance three, Others 17.
Previous Poll of Poll Updates
19 January: No appreciable change
30 January: FG, Labour continue to rise
4 February: Has the rise in Fine Gael's fortunes been halted?
8 February: Poll of Polls suggests FG and Labour to fall just short
10 February: Slight gains for Fianna Fáil & Sinn Féin in latest Poll of Polls
13 February: FF, SF neck and neck
16 February: Downward trend for Fine Gael
20 February: The truth is everywhere
22 February: And yet it moves!
By Michael Marsh, Emeritus Professor, Trinity College Dublin
