Analysis: The Middle East airline hubs are geographically located for global connectivity so the significant disruption may take weeks to clear
By Natasha Heap, University of Southern Queensland
Travellers are being advised not to cancel their tickets for flights through the Middle East and check with their airlines, as airspace remains closed indefinitely. If travellers cancel a ticket, they may lose some of their consumer rights and ability to claim refunds.
The US and Israeli bombing of Iran and the closure of airspace and airports is affecting all global airlines that fly through the region. The closures will have a flow-on effect, leading to significant disruption to the global airline industry that may take weeks to clear.
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From RTÉ's Behind the Story podcast, reaction to US and Israel's attack on Iran
Tens of thousands of travellers affected
The Middle East is home to three of the world's largest airlines: Emirates and Etihad, both in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Qatar Airways, based in Qatar. Over the past 20 years, the region has become the global hub of international aviation. It is not only the three airlines that call the region home that are affected by the current conflict.
Emirates has issued a notice to all passengers advising it has suspended all operations to and from Dubai until 3pm UAE time on March 2. Passengers booked to travel on or before March 5 have two options: rebook on an alternative flight or request a refund. Etihad has issued similar advice. Qatar is referring travellers to its app. Other carriers that fly through the region, such as Lufthansa have also issued notices to their passengers.
Virgin Australia and Qantas' operations are not directly affected by the airspace closure. However, some passengers may be affected if travelling on partner airlines. It is essential for people due to travel to check with their airline. Travel insurance for cancellations is unlikely to be helpful, because acts of war that disrupt travel are explicitly excluded from coverage.
With all the airspace closures in the Middle East, air traffic is being significantly impacted. Here's the average number of daily airport movements (take-offs or landings) at some of the affected airports:
— Flightradar24 (@flightradar24) February 28, 2026
DXB – 1,241
DOH – 719
AUH – 510
SHJ – 321
KWI – 294
BAH – 232
DWC – 190 pic.twitter.com/7B7NEfi5CR
It could take weeks to clear the backlog of travellers just from the past weekend. US President Donald Trump has said the operations could last for "four weeks or less". Tens of thousands of travellers are stranded in the Middle East waiting for the airspace to reopen so they can continue their journey.
The General Civil Aviation Authority in the UAE announced the UAE government will bear the cost of accommodating all stranded passengers in their country. There are around 20,000 people stranded in the UAE, and many more in other countries across the region.
Plans in place to keep passengers safe
Airlines have been watching the rising tensions in the region very closely. They're used to dealing with unexpected operational disruptions. With the June 2025 major shutdown of Middle Eastern airspace still fresh in people's minds, the airlines were quick to factor that experience into their decisions this time around.
From BBC News, airlines halt flights to Middle East after Iran strikes
But the current situation is a little different to June 2025. Following US and Israeli bombing of targets in Iran at the weekend, Iran responded with missiles and drones that hit both civilian and military targets in several countries across the region. Dubai International Airport and Abu Dhabi's Zayed International Airport were both hit by drone attacks or debris. Both of these airports are for civil use and are not military assets.
This is not the first time airports in the region have come under attack. In January 2022, Houthi forces in Yemen launched a drone attack on Abu Dhabi's airport. Three people were killed.
The airline hubs have few alternatives
Some airlines affected by the airspace closure will be able to adjust their schedules and routes to avoid the area to try and lessen the impact both to their passengers and their business profitability.
However, the carriers that call the Middle East home have built their networks and highly profitable businesses using the hub and spoke model. They bring passengers into the hub, which is a transfer point to then fly them onward to their destinations. With the airspace closed, these airlines cannot bring passengers in or fly them out.
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From RTÉ Radio 1's This Week, Minister for Foreign Affairs, Helen McEntee discusses the Irish citizens stranded in the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Kuwait
It would be nearly impossible for the main carriers in the Middle East to temporarily move their base of operations to another country. They are large organisations. Emirates currently has a fleet of 261 passenger aircraft in service. Simply finding a place to park all the aeroplanes would be a significant challenge.
Complex systems within systems
Running an airline is like putting together a complex jigsaw puzzle with constantly moving pieces. Beyond the aircraft, airlines need large teams of pilots and cabin crew, as well as extensive catering, cleaning, refuelling and maintenance operations. These systems are highly integrated and location-specific. This makes it extremely difficult to relocate or replicate them in another country at short notice.
Currently, the Middle Eastern carriers have large numbers of aircraft, crew and passengers stranded at the far reaches of their networks. For all airlines, the safety and security of their passengers and crew is their priority.
Will this latest airspace closure reduce demand for travel through the Middle East? It may in the short term, but people will continue to travel.
When the airspace reopens, airlines will face significant challenges to work through the backlog of stranded passengers. Extra flights and adjustments to schedules will likely be needed.
It remains unclear how long the airspace will be closed. But the airlines will already be working on plans to restore full operations quickly and safely when the time comes.
Will this latest airspace closure reduce demand for travel through the Middle East? It may in the short term. However, people will continue to travel. The Middle Eastern airline hubs are geographically located for global connectivity. The hope is the current military action and regional instability will be short-lived.
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Natasha Heap is a Lecturer in Aviation at the University of Southern Queensland. This article was originally published by The Conversation.
The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ
