Analysis: Insurance, defence and tech companies are using AI and meteorology expertise to assess risks and mitigate costs from climate change
By Andrew Parnell, UCD
Cuts to weather services in the United States have been making headlines this year, but investment in weather forecasting is ramping up in the rest of the world. Meteorologists are increasingly in demand. Insurance and tech companies are looking for advanced meteorology expertise to assess risks and mitigate costs from climate change. Some public figures may be questioning climate change, but their views are deeply at odds with many companies when it comes to weather forecasting.
So why are major tech companies investing in weather forecasting technology? There are many reasons but it's chiefly because AI has transformed weather forecasting. A combination of better AI models, more powerful computing and larger datasets means that we are seeing increasingly accurate forecasting.
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From RTÉ Brainstorm, the science behind the weather forecast
The datasets challenge existing AI models because they are complex which supports AI development. Companies that still have sustainability agendas are interested in the social impact of extreme weather and the economic impact of extreme weather is of interest to everyone, especially the insurance sector. There are also defence implications; weather forecasting has been a key element of defence strategy since the Second World War.
Met Éireann is also tooling and skilling up with an investment of €5m in PhD training and High Performance Computing. The new AIMSIR centre has just had its first intake of students with more positions being advertised over time. They will spend 12 weeks learning meteorology from climate scientists and AI from engineers, chiefly from the Insight Research Ireland Centre for Data Analytics.
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From RTÉ Radio 1's Morning Ireland, Pof Andrew Parnell discusess the new AI forecasting centre AIMSIR which will strengthen Ireland's preparedness for changing weather
At the end of the period, they will choose a supervisor and an area of research. Topics in play include extreme events, droughts, AI forecasting models, bias in AI-powered weather forecasting and health in weather forecasting. The HSE is another AIMSIR collaborator as there is growing research interest in the human effects of extreme weather, such as strokes and mental health. We need better warning systems for these outcomes too.
Much of the data that these researchers will use comes from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), a little-known entity that supplies most of Europe with weather intelligence. Ireland is unlikely to develop its own entirely bespoke weather forecasting system, but we can feed our unique data into the European modelling system and gain more benefit, when we have the expertise. AIMSIR researchers will be working with the new AI weather modelling systems using ECMWF data. Met Éireann supervisors will also feed into the process to ensure that the PhD research projects are applicable to Met Éireann’s work.
From ECMWF, what goes on at the European centre for weather forecasting?
This area is changing rapidly as the datasets improve. Another associated organisation, EUMetSat, is currently launching satellites for better detection of weather extremes. Unlike other areas of AI development, there are far fewer privacy implications when it comes to weather data. This is another factor driving investment in the area. It’s a great way to challenge engineering teams without running into the issues you encounter with health or personal data.
Besides AIMSIR, the Research Ireland Co-Centre Climate Plus is another example of a recent major investments in climatology in Ireland. Despite some political narratives to the contrary, weather prediction and climatology is profitable, critical and developing rapidly.
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Prof Andrew Parnell is the Met Éireann Professor of Data Science for Climate and Weather at UCD and Director of the AIMSIR research institute for Artificial Intelligence in Meteorological Services, Innovation and Research. He is Principal Investigator at the Insight Research Ireland Centre for Data Analytics
The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ
