Analysis: Never has a transport project in Ireland been as analysed, appraised, criticised and debated as much as this
By Brian Caulfield, Trinity College Dublin
A rail line serving North County Dublin and the airport has been under discussion in the capital for over 30 years. Many factors are responsible for the lack of delivery of this project, including political indecision, cost and protracted debates over which option was best to deliver the required transport service.
In 2011, the Metro North project received planning permission to proceed, but it was subsequently cancelled due to the economic recession. However, similar debates continued at the time about the best alternative to serve one of the country's fastest-growing populations in North County Dublin.
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From RTÉ Radio 1's Today with Claire Byrne, Prof Brian Caulfield and The Irish Times' Dublin editor Olivia Kelly discuss the long overdue Metrolink
Around that time my team published a paper in the Journal of Transport Policy which examined several alternatives to the Metro North project. Our study looked at a DART spur line, a Luas line to the airport and a more efficient bus service operating via the Port Tunnel. Our findings showed that none of these alternatives were able to provide the capacity proposed by the Metro North project.
14 years later, a new plan to connect North County Dublin—Metrolink—is being proposed and is seeking planning permission. The project is very similar to its predecessor, and many of the arguments for its construction in terms of capacity and travel times remain largely the same.
However, the narrative around the project still seems to be anchored in the belief that it is primarily an "airport train." This perception persists alongside arguments that other alternatives could be more efficient and concerns that a comprehensive Cost-Benefit Analysis has not been completed.
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From RTÉ News' Behind the Story podcast, will Dublin's Metro ever get built?
Many of us are familiar with landing at international airports and using a direct rail line or metro system to travel onwards to our next destinations. Many believe that Metrolink in Dublin is just that; namely, a rail line that will connect the airport to the city centre. The airport is a stop on the Metrolink plan, but it is one of 16 stops. While it is projected to be the busiest stop, with approximately 18% of all passengers departing the metro there, the service is much more than just an airport link as it will provide much-needed connectivity to North County Dublin.
Some say that other alternatives could provide the same transport capacity at a much lower cost. Unfortunately, the opportunity for a lower-cost option with the same capacity was lost when the original Metro North project was cancelled in 2011. Since that time, the population has grown, and so have the costs of constructing a metro.
When evaluating possible alternatives, the key issues are capacity and travel time. A metro train can accommodate 500 people. Consider the following example: a metro train at 80% capacity would carry 400 people. To transport this number of people by bus, you would need 5.6 buses (assuming 80% capacity), or 200 private cars (assuming two people per car). Now, think of the amount of space these modes would occupy; the difference is significant.
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From RTÉ News, Transport Infrastructure Ireland says the Metrolink will 'revolutionise' public transport in the capital
Metrolink can run a train every 90 seconds (40 trains per direction per hour), which would require 444 buses or 16,000 cars to provide the same level of hourly capacity. Even with dedicated tunnels, this would result in congestion. Furthermore, if the Port Tunnel were used, it would have significant impacts on freight movements due to the additional vehicles.
What about a new Luas line as an alternative? The Luas Green Line has a capacity of just over 8,000 passengers per hour in each direction, but Metrolink's proposed capacity is 2.5 times greater. The Metrolink travel time of 25 minutes from Swords to the city could not be matched by any of these alternatives.
Never has a transport project in Ireland been analysed, appraised and debated as much as the Dublin Metro. Every transport strategy written for the region in the past 30-plus years has indicated a metro line with the capacity currently under consideration is required.
In 2021, a detailed business case, spanning thousands of pages of detailed design and appraisal, was published by the Department of Transport. The appraisal includes a cost-benefit analysis, which was reviewed by the Department for Public Expenditure and Reform and peer-reviewed by international experts. All of these steps are both prudent and responsible, considering the sum of public funding that will be spent on this project.
The most recent cost-benefit analysis shows that the transport benefits of the project could amount to €15.6bn over 60 years. This does not take into account the wider economic benefits of improved air quality, reduced emissions or safety impacts. Assuming planning permission is granted and the final price for the project is known after the tendering process, the cost-benefit analysis exercise will be repeated to ensure that the final analysis still indicates the substantial benefits of proceeding with the project.
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From RTÉ Radio 1's Drivetime, Ryanair boss Michael O'Leary on why he says we don't need the Metrolink
It's expected that 175,000 people and 250,000 jobs will be within walking distance of a metro stop. It will connect 127 schools, five hospitals and three universities. The project will connect with existing modes of public transport within the city, providing a network effect that will transform mobility in our capital.
This is a project that will require political support for at least the next decade, as the timeline will span beyond the current Government and likely extend through the terms of perhaps two more. The project is at a pivotal stage and support from the government has been positive in the form of funding through the revised National Development Plan. Given that this will be the most expensive infrastructure project ever attempted in Ireland, this support will need to be steadfast and come from all political parties.
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Prof Brian Caulfield is Professor in Transportation at the School of Engineering at Trinity College Dublin
The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ
