How global politics are affecting your grocery bill

We live in a world where decisions are taken far from the checkouts of our local supermarkets which ultimately hit all of our pockets. Problems with a shipping route in the Red Sea or a White House decision in the US can influence what's on the shelves in Dublin or Donegal - and how much you pay for it.

My ongoing research has explored how geopolitical factors from populist politics to protectionist tariffs are shaping the decisions that companies make about where and how they source goods. So, how are these seemingly far-off calls bumping up the price of your weekly shop?

When 'buying local' actually means 'buying global'

We’ve all heard the importance of shopping local, in supporting the economy and helping keep jobs in our areas. But one of the most consistent findings from my interviews was that public and political narratives, especially those shaped by nationalism or populism, often push companies to appear more local without making substantive changes to their supply chains.

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From RTÉ Brainstorm, international companies often package their product with specific language and imagery in an effort to connect with local consumers

For instance, organisations may promote nearshoring (outsourcing to companies in a nearby country) or domestic manufacturing in public statements, but continue to rely on global suppliers in reality due to cost, quality or capacity constraints. As one participant put it, "nearshoring is lip service, you have to be seen to be supporting local manufacturing, but in reality, the supply chain hasn’t moved".

As an Irish consumer, you might be choosing products based on the assumption that "local" means homegrown or EU-sourced, but those labels may reflect marketing strategy rather than true sourcing or country of origin shifts. If your motivation is sustainability, ethical labour practices or support for the local economy, it’s worth asking whether branding aligns with actual supply chain behaviour.

Political pressure doesn’t always lead to smart decisions

Another theme that emerged in my research was the influence of political and media pressure on executive decision-making, especially during moments of crisis. Multiple interviewees highlighted that supply chain disruptions could trigger panic. In some companies, leadership demanded overnight shifts away from Chinese suppliers not based on operational risk assessment or financial evaluation rather as a reaction to headlines and public sentiment.

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This kind of knee jerk reaction is both inefficient and costly. Several participants noted that protectionist policies like tariffs haven't meaningfully reshaped supply chains. Instead, they’ve increased complexity and pushed higher costs, often to the detriment of consumers.

Such reactionary decisions can cause large and unexpected increases in the amount you are paying on goods. The next time you notice a sudden price hike on everyday items such as electronics, sportswear or over-the-counter medicine, stop and consider the broader context. Rising prices can sometimes reflect not just material costs or inflation, but reactive supply decisions driven by perception not evidence. Could this price possibly come down again in the near future, when fears subside?

Why supply chain decisions are not always rational

Companies are under more pressure than ever to monitor geopolitical risk. Dedicated functions are being set up to monitor developments in trade policy, diplomatic tensions and regional instability. However, the redesign of supply chains is rarely straightforward. There is limited evidence of any mass reshoring of production, particularly in the Irish or European context.

From RTÉ Radio 1's Today with Claire Byrne in Jan 2024, Nils Haupt from Hapag Lloyd on understanding the implications for the global supply chain from the Red Sea crisis

Instead, what’s happening is more tactical. Companies are adding buffers, dual-sourcing from new regions (like Southeast Asia instead of China) or increasing inventory. My research has identified that these strategies can be driven more by risk diversification than national loyalty or political ideology.

These changes affect product availability and resilience, especially in times of global uncertainty. When there are shortages or delays (such as personal protective equipment during the Covid pandemic), it’s helpful to understand that companies are trying to build more flexible, not necessarily more "local" systems. Certain goods can become scarce as a result, which not only leads to less of them being available, but also those that are can become more expensive as a result.

The challenge of misinformation

Several interviewees reflected on how politicised media coverage can complicate supply chain decision making. Rather than focusing on deliberate misinformation, participants pointed to the challenges posed by politically charged or agenda driven narratives that dominate both traditional and social media.

From RTÉ Radio 1's Today with Claire Byrne in Sep 2024, Marco Forgione from the Institute of Export & International Trade on how a port strike in the US could affect the global supply chain

These narratives can lead to misinterpretations of geopolitical risk within organisations, prompting disproportionate responses to events. One participant described the internal pressure this created during the Red Sea crisis, where his team were urged to respond based on fact and risk assessments, rather than trending media.

As a small, open economy, Ireland is deeply integrated into global supply chains. Misconceptions about how these systems work can lead to misguided policy pressure, poor consumer choices or even loss of trust when companies can’t meet unrealistic expectations. While a crisis can often lead to you paying more at the till, sometimes it can actually be a misunderstanding of a crisis by a business that hits your pocket, particularly in an economy such as Ireland’s.

Cost remains an important factor

While public perception plays a role, most participants in my research were clear that cost is still critical to businesses and the customer. When it comes down to the final decision on where to source from, economic factors usually win out over ideology or narrative. Political reactions may be swift and presidential terms are limited, but supply chain responses are slow, cautious and deeply rooted in cost-benefit analysis. The bottom line is often what wins out in the final decision for companies.

From RTÉ Radio 1's Drivetime, warnings that the days of cheap food are over

As much as we may want to believe that politics or public opinion reshapes global trade, the reality is more cautious. Companies will weigh sentiment against spreadsheets. As a result, meaningful change whether towards more ethical sourcing, local production or reduced emissions requires long-term planning not short-term pressure. This is a large factor in keeping down the price that you eventually pay for your goods.

At first glance, topics like trade policy, tariffs or global sourcing might feel distant from everyday Irish life. But as this research shows, they’re not. What happens in far-off factories or foreign governments affects what’s on our shelves, how much we pay and whether our supply of essentials is secure.

It's worth remembering that price increases often lag behind the actual disruption. Transport costs rise, materials become scarce and those pressures build gradually until they hit your wallet. A geopolitical conflict or supply chain shock might happen months before you see it reflected in the prices paid at the supermarket checkout.

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The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ