Opinion: Brexit forced the border question back onto the agenda, but the sense of crisis that once drove these conversations has started to dissipate
By Catriona Shelly and Orla Muldoon, University of Limerick
Brexit was a British project, but Ireland felt the shockwaves. After nearly two decades of relative peace in Northern Ireland, Brexit forced the difficult 'border question' back onto the agenda. As the UK left the EU five years ago, new trade and customs arrangements were needed. At one stage, it seemed a hard border might divide Ireland, North and South. Later, it seemed unification of the island might be on the agenda. Now 5 years on, this solution also has seemed to lose its appeal.
The Good Friday Agreement being a multi-party deal involved both the British and Irish governments. Brexit was a stark reminder of the fragility of Northern Ireland's fragile peace and old power imbalances. The UK appeared to act unilaterally on Brexit, with little regard for this fragile peace.
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From RTÉ Radio 1's Morning Ireland, RTÉ London Correspondent Tommy Meskill looks at the impact of Brexit five years on
This discontent with Brexit handed Sinn Féin a strategic opportunity to push their agenda. The day after the Brexit result in 2016, Martin McGuinness, then Sinn Féin deputy first minister of Northern Ireland, called for a border poll. Since then, its leaders have skilfully painted Brexit as yet another chapter in a long history of British indifference, presenting a united Ireland, free from Brexit and British rule, as the solution.
The prospect of reunification resonated not just with Nationalists, but also with some Unionists. Disillusioned by Westminster’s disregard for the hard-won peace and the social and economic dividend it brought, political attitudes began to shift. More people in Northern Ireland became open to the idea of a united Ireland in the wake of Brexit.
In the Republic of Ireland, the conversation moved from the fringes to the mainstream, with major political parties beginning to address the possibility of a united Ireland. Sinn Féin’s popularity on both sides of the border rose as they made historic electoral gains in both the Republic and Northern Ireland. A united Ireland became a hot political topic on both sides of the border.
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From RTÉ Archives, Aisling Kenny reports for RTÉ News in 2019 on how businesses have been urged to prepare for a no-deal Brexit
But Brexit has not unfolded in the manner many had feared. The Northern Ireland Protocol pushed the border into the Irish Sea and Northern Ireland began to operate under different rules from the rest of the UK. In practical terms, the Protocol avoided major disruption. Businesses adapted and Northern Ireland’s economy even benefited from unique access to both the UK and EU markets. The Northern Ireland government was restored, bringing a level of stability. The Common Travel Area that has allowed free movement between Britain and Ireland since 1922 has assuaged many of the concerns those in the Republic had.
In Ireland, the border is both a geographical divide and a symbolic fault line. Any change to its location or significance fuels tensions between the two parts of the island. This is because the border makes Northerners and Southerners out of people. This fault line defines groups of people. Many will define their nationality based on the border: it's a line that can make you British, Irish or Northern Irish. In Northern Ireland, your political position with regard to the border can make you a leaver or remainer or even a Nationalist or Unionist.
Because people self define with regard to the border, any substantive change in the border can feel threatening to people on both sides. In the early days post-Brexit, Unionists felt threatened, believing the promised backstop would weaken ties with Britian. Indeed, the 2022 collapse of the Stormont assembly can be linked to this feeling of betrayal and threat amongst unionists.
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For Republicans and even Nationalists, Brexit was further proof that Northern Ireland’s future was best decided by Dublin rather than London. The prospects of being disconnected from the rest of Ireland and Europe by a hard border made the desire for Irish unity even stronger. We know from research that when people feel threatened it can cause a 'rally around the flag effect'. In this case, Brexit created real fears bringing stronger Unionist and Nationalist sentiments.
But five years later, tensions have eased and daily life has continued. The sense of crisis that once drove conversations has started to dissipate. As those fears have subsided, so too has the momentum for change. Indeed it would appear that attempts to convince people that Brexit remains a pressing threat- can actually reduce support for Irish unity. We are back to viewing those with strong and entrenched identities with caution. It would seem that the worst of Brexit is now behind us, and so much of the energy behind unification has faded.
Sinn Féin’s goal of securing a referendum by 2030 now seems out of reach. Tánaiste Simon Harris this week stated that Irish unity is "not his priority" and UK prime minister Keir Starmer has also said that an Irish unity poll is "not even on the horizon." Without Brexit related instability, the conversation and the border question is no longer even being asked.
Dr Catriona Shelly is a postdoctoral researcher in social psychology at the University of Limerick. She is a former Research Ireland awardee. Prof Orla Muldoon is Professor of Psychology at University of Limerick and Queen's University Belfast. She is a former Research Ireland awardee
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The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ
