Analysis: This is only the third time in the history of the State that a general election has been held in November. Will the day, weather, or time of year affect turnout?
Throughout the last century or so Ireland has gone to the polls in 33 general elections (as well as 32 referendums and 22 local elections). From electing the first Dáil in 1918 to electing the latest in 2020, we've turned up to fill out our ballots come rain or shine at polling stations across the country, even travelling by sled if needed.
Last week, Taoiseach Simon Harris officially dissolved the 33rd Dáil later and called the next general election for Friday, November 29. This will be the first election under the Electoral (Amendment) Act 2023, which saw boundary lines redrawn to form four new constituencies, for a total of 43, with an additional 14 seats in the Dáil, bringing the total number of TDs to 174.
But when it comes to electing our representatives, is turnout affected by the time of year? The day of the week? The weather? Here’s what we know.
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From RTÉ Radio 1's News At One, Taoiseach Simon Harris calls general election for November 29
Ireland’s general election dates in numbers
Beginning with the election of the first Dáil in 1918, if we look back at general elections dates historically, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday have been the most frequent polling days (8 times each).
In the last couple of decades we've become accustomed to voting on a Friday, but until 1997 only two general elections had been held on a Friday (1922 and 1938). November 29 will mark the State's seventh Friday general election. We've only ever had one general election on a Saturday (2020) and one on a Monday (1923).
Meanwhile, June (9) and February (8) have been the most frequent months. We've had just two general elections in November previously (1982 and 1992) and two in December (1918 and 2020). The majority of our general elections have been held in spring (10) or summer (16), while we’ve only had three general elections in autumn and three in winter.
The highest turnout ever recorded for a general election was in 1933 (81.30%) on a cold January day, and the lowest was in 1923 (61.30%) on an August summer day. In more recent times, the lowest turnout was in 2002 (62.60%). We haven’t seen a general election turnout over 70% since 1987.
But does the day or time of year affect turnout?
It's "hard to make a call" on the impact of time of year on turnout, says Dr Adrian Kavanagh, Lecturer and Assistant Professor in the Department of Geography at Maynooth University, who specialises in the geography of elections. Historically, we’ve seen some of the lowest turnout figures during summer months (August 1923, June 1922 and May 2002). Meanwhile, the highest turnout level "was in the middle of winter with people in places like Monaghan going to vote by sled!" he adds of the 1933 general election, which was held on January 24. The literature "usually suggests that weekend voting is better for turnout then midweek," he says.
Recent research from the ESRI can help shed some light on what role weather plays in turnout. By comparing rainfall and constituency-level election data between 1989 and 2016, they found that rainfall can significantly reduce voter turnout. In densely populated constituencies, such as urban areas, a rainy day - defined as as 30 mm of rain - decreases turnout by as much as three percentage points. The research authors, Dr Abian Garcia Rodriguez and Dr Paul Redmond, argue there could be two possible explanations for this: civic duty and transport. A rural voter with a higher sense of civic duty might be more 'immune' to rain on an election day. And, urban voters are more likely to travel by foot or bicycle, while a rural voter typically will travel by car.
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From RTÉ Archives, in 1999 the number of people who voted in the local elections was the lowest ever recorded
There are multiple other factors that affect turnout, including what kind of election it is. As highlighted by Kavanagh and Dr William Durkan in previous research, turnout tends to be highest for general elections, but lower for local elections, European elections, referendums and presidential elections. There can also be considerable geographical variations to this. Broadly speaking, turnout for general elections can be higher in rural areas, while turnout for referendums can be higher in more urban areas.
Factors that are usually associated with higher turnout in an area include: older populations, married people, residential stability, rurally based/agricultural employment, affluence/high levels of social wellbeing, high levels of education, owner occupied housing, high levels of political mobilisation, proximity to the polling station, high levels of political choice, and weekend voting.
Read more: Getting out the vote: what influences voter turnout?
Factors that are usually associated with lower turnout include: younger populations, single or separated people, population mobility, urban-based employment, social deprivation, low education standards, local authority or private rented housing, low levels of political mobilisation, distance from the polling station, low levels of political choice, and voting on weekdays.
Turnout data is also generally believed to be inaccurate due to inconsistencies and thousands of names being duplicated on the electoral register. As turnout is calculated as a percentage of the total electorate, too many names on the list will underestimate the turnout at an election, while too few will overestimate it.
"When people talk about the electoral register, people think there is one big register. We have 28 separate registers in this country and they do not talk to each other," Art O'Leary, Chief Executive of An Coimisiún Toghcháin told an Oireachtas Committee in February. "We are good at putting people on the register but sometimes not so great at taking people off. If you live as an 18-year-old at home in Kerry, go to college in Dublin, do your master’s in Limerick and then get a job in Waterford, it is likely you will appear on four or five different electoral registers," he said. According to An Coimisiún Toghcháin there's a project underway in the Department of Housing and with the local authorities to create a single database.
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The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ
