Analysis: a contested election could turn out to be a deeply unwelcome stress test for American democracy
'A battle for the soul of America' is how US political pundits have been describing presidential elections for much of the 21st century. There is a steel ring of truth to this cliché, perhaps never more so in 2024. It is no exaggeration to say that the US is more divided now than at any time since the American Civil War. There is no middle ground anymore, and those on either side of the political divide are separated by a river of disinformation, lies and emotion. Opinion polls, in as far as they are useful, tell us that the presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are locked in a dead heat even in swing states.
So what might happen after today, if the outcome is too close to make a clear call in the early hours of tomorrow? Whoever wins, a decisive victory would be desirable, indeed safer, for the nation and for democracy.
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From RTÉ Radio 1's News at One, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump make their final appeals to voters to get out and vote
If Harris loses...
Obsession with opinion polls is the norm in any election campaign, and 2024 is no exception. However, whilst they are helpful to an extent, the reality is that the numbers have shown a race so tight that the difference between candidates remains well within the margin of error.
Therefore, the polls are not quite useless, but they cannot offer much insight either. Looking at aggregate numbers in the final furlong before polling day shows Harris leading by 1.2%. This is well within the margin of error, and prone to other polling feature vulnerabilities such as non-response bias, that is, Democrats being more likely to respond to political surveys.
Even if it is actually correct, her polling in the swing states is what matters. So, if for example she does not reach the required 270 electoral college votes, but gets a majority of the popular vote, or vice versa, the outcome will be unwelcome to her supporters.
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From RTÉ Radio 1's Morning Ireland, Prof Thomas Gift from University College London on an Iowa poll showing a shift to Kamala Harris in key swing state
However, if the Democrats sell themselves as the party of respect for democratic norms and institutions, it is reasonable to assume that a smooth transition of power will take place. Accompanying this would be an abundance of introspection and soul-searching, much amplified if the opposition party takes control of the Senate. Such a double defeat would spur genuine fear among Democrats for an unrestrained executive and a deeply concerning direction of travel for the nation.
If Trump loses...
Trump surpassed his public opinion polls in 2016, and again, moreso, in 2020. The political mood this time is more volatile than four or eight years ago, and this means that some voters remained undecided even late in the day. Hence, even with the polls as they are, and assuming they are accurate, he may still lose albeit by a tiny margin.
Those who tuned in to developments during that period in the aftermath of the 2020 election and before the subsequent January 6th 2021 assault on the Capitol will recall the media coverage. Government officials in towns many of us had not heard of and who had never experienced threats or exposure as a result of trying to carry out their non-partisan duties were suddenly in the spotlight. Election staff in Maricopa County, Arizona and elsewhere faced the consequences of voting fraud misinformation.
From RTÉ Radio 1's Brendan O'Connor Show, Irish Times' Washington correspondent Keith Duggan on how Trump has turned up the volume on his message of fear
Fake news abounded and allies of Trump bypassed conventional channels to put immense pressure on the Chair of the Maricopa County board of supervisors to 'find' the necessary votes to get him over the line in the tightest of contents. Local officials held their ground and the state was called for Joe Biden, albeit by a razor-thin 0.3% margin.
Four years later, the MAGA narrative still maintains that Trump won the election. The same Arizona election officials are, in their own words, confident but wary regarding the preparation they have put in place for whatever might transpire after today. For everyone nervous of a win for Trump, a loss in no way guarantees a graceful departure from the Oval Office. The man from Mar-a-Lago is adept at making his presence known, wherever he is situated.
We've been here before...
In 2000, Al Gore won the popular vote but did not become president. His opponent George W Bush won 271 electoral college votes, and the outcome came down to a nail-biting finale in Florida, later dramatised in the movie Recount.
From The History Channel, how the US Supreme Court decided the 2000 US presidential election
The election was called and uncalled, Gore conceded and then un-conceded, and the final result was only decided after the Supreme Court ruled on December 12th in Bush V Gore that settled the Florida recount dispute. Gore 'lost’ the election despite winning over half a million more votes than his opponent. Protesters took to the streets and the political drama received saturation news coverage.
There were two crucial differences between then and now. Firstly, the day after the Supreme Court decision, Gore conceded, graciously. Secondly, social media did not exist. There was of course media bias, but Americans in 2000 were receiving their news predominantly from the television, newspaper and radio. Whatever their heated and differing opinions, everyone was exposed to the same facts of the matter.
As with previous major tests of American democracy, the consensus was that the system worked, albeit only just. In 2024, they system is already shaking. A contested election would be a deeply unwelcome stress test.
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The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ
