Analysis: it is unlikely that the majority of the Irish population would support Ireland joining NATO

According to its official website, NATO 'promotes democratic values and enables members to consult and cooperate on defence and security-related issues…..NATO is committed to peaceful resolution of disputes. If diplomatic efforts fail, it has the military power to undertake crisis management operations'. In reality, it is a collective defence organisation based on an international treaty, Article 5 of which provides that the parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack on them all.

Article 5 was invoked in response to the Al-Qaeda September 11th 2001 attacks on the United States. There were a number of remarkable aspects to this, chiefly that it led to military action outside of Europe in Afghanistan and with the support of the UN. This was not what the founders had envisioned for NATO, but it was evidence of its ability to adapt.

Even then, though, cracks in the edifice were evident with resentment that some member states were shouldering an unfair burden. Interventions in Afghanistan and Libya have come at an enormous human cost and the consequences will be felt for generations to come.

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From RTÉ One's Six One News, NATO rejects Ukraine no-fly zone and says it's not part of this war

Since the end of the Cold War and the fall of the Soviet Union, NATO has expanded incrementally but significantly into Eastern and Central Europe. Not surprisingly, this has alarmed Russia, as the West is perceived to be encroaching into the former Soviet sphere of influence. It is also a violation of a reputed US pledge not to do so after Germany’s reunification in 1990.

NATO is a remnant of the Cold War and the demise of the former Soviet Union might well have seen it consigned to history. Not surprisingly, the post-Cold War era has seen NATO beset by challenges in its search for new roles and purpose. In 2019, French president Emmanuel Macron alarmed his allies when he said that he did not know whether NATO’s commitment to collective defence was still valid and that the alliance was experiencing ‘brain death’ because of a lack of strategic coordination and leadership from the US (under former president Donald Trump). In what can only be described as supreme irony, Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine has suddenly provided NATO with a new lease of life and rallying call.

It is noteworthy that NATO-Russia relations improved somewhat when Russia joined the North Atlantic Cooperation Council in 1991 and the Partnership for Peace programme in 1994. The two sides made a reciprocal commitment to work together to build a stable, secure and undivided continent on the basis of partnership and common interest in 1997.

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From BBC Newsm, what is NATO for?

Cooperation was suspended in April 2014 in response to Russia's then military intervention in Ukraine. At the time, Putin complained bitterly of NATO’s expansion to the east and what he saw as contemporary manifestations of the centuries old efforts to contain Russia. Russia’s current aggression in Ukraine has raised fears that Putin may look beyond Ukraine and target other non-NATO members, such as Moldova, Georgia or even Finland.

There is no evidence that Ireland is under threat, but the renewed interest in NATO has people asking why Ireland is not a member. There is an open invitation to Ireland to join but, despite the condemnation of Russia and calls for review of Irish ‘neutrality’ in the Dail last week, there was no clamour for Ireland to join NATO.

Membership of the United Nations (UN) has been a central pillar of Irish foreign policy since 1955. Maintaining an effective UN, especially in the area of conflict prevention, forms a key objective of this policy. Furthermore, the effects of Ireland’s policies over a range of issues, including decolonisation, disarmament, human rights and its history under colonial rule and non-membership of a military alliance, combined to make Ireland acceptable as a contributor to multi-lateral diplomacy and peacekeeping.

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From RTÉ Archives, Kevin O'Kelly reports for RTÉ News on Irish troops serving with the United Nations in Famagusta, Cyprus in 1964

Joining NATO would be inconsistent with Ireland’s traditional policies on nuclear and conventional disarmament in particular. The 2015 Defence White Paper confirmed Ireland’s policy of military neutrality and this is a fundamental tenet of Irish foreign policy. Membership of NATO would undermine the unique role that Ireland has played and is well suited to continue into the future.

NATO does not necessarily provide the best mechanism to confront contemporary challenges. It also has a number of states with questionable commitment to liberal democratic values. Although not the only reason for the current conflict in Ukraine, the consequences of expansion cannot be dismissed and were not taken seriously by the West.

Furthermore, large military budgets are expensive and do not address the causes or consequences of political upheaval and social exclusion. Military expenditure does not neutralise extremism. It is often driven by the interests of what former US Allied Supreme Commander and President Eisenhower identified as the military-industrial complex.

In 2020, US military expenditure reached an estimated $778 billion, representing an increase of 4.4% over 2019. As the world's largest military spender, the US accounted for 39% of total military expenditure in 2020. Russia’s military expenditure in 2020 increased to $61.7 billion, a small fraction of what NATO or the US spends. Is it any surprise that Russia feels threatened?

Joining NATO would require a referendum. Currently Article 29.4.9 of the Constitution prohibits Ireland joining any Common EU defence arrangement. Despite many commentators suggesting it is time to change our policy on military neutrality, it is unlikely that the majority of the Irish population would support Ireland joining NATO.

We already co-operate with NATO, primarily through the Partnership for Peace Programme. Ireland has also co-operated with our EU partners on various crisis management and related operations. In the context of maintaining peace in Europe, the EU has played a much more significant role than that of NATO. This is where Ireland has most to offer, and its economic and security interests are best protected. It is also noteworthy that, to date, the EU has also accommodated Ireland’s particular policy of ‘military neutrality’.

The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ