Opinion: the latest military build-up of Kremlin forces near Ukraine's border is part of Putin's plan to restore historical Russia
Amid the ongoing fears about Russia's possible invasion of Ukraine, it makes sense to look at this situation from different perspectives to understand the current crisis better. The recent military build-up of the Russian forces near Ukraine's border, brought into the spotlight by international media coverage, came as a shock to many. But this is not much of a surprise to the Ukrainian people and those who closely follow Russia's international politics.
Firstly, Russia is not 'about to start a war' with Ukraine – they are already at war since the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and Russia's encroachment in Eastern Ukraine. Since then, 14,000 Ukrainians have been killed and the country has lost 7% of its territory and a fifth of its industrial base. The endless talks have not delivered any solution because Russia is unwilling to compromise.
There is a solid reason for that and it is not, as Russian officials have repeatedly publicly stated, that NATO's eastward expansion threatens Russia's security. The real reason is that the Kremlin has a grand plan and is determined to deliver. During an infamous speech in Munich in 2007, Vladimir Putin said that the collapse of the USSR "the greatest tragedy of the twentieth century". Since then, he has openly declared his intentions to practically restore the empire in one form or another.
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From Russia Today, Vladimir Putin's keynote speech at the Munich Security Conference in 2007
Putin does not make a secret of his geopolitical views which he clearly expressed on numerous occasions. One of the most recent was a 7,000-word essay in which he virtually denied the Ukrainian people their national identity. For him, independent Ukraine is historical nonsense, which the West artificially created to weaken and divide historical Russia. He is apparently a man with a mission to restore that historical Russia and bring together what he sees as a divided Russian people, including Ukrainians and Belarusians.
In recent years, Russia's officials and public figures often openly declare territorial claims on former parts of the Soviet Union, like Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Baltic states or even former subjects of the tsarist Russian Empire like Poland or Finland. For example, Deputy Head of Russia's State Duma, Vladimir Zhirinovsky, often calls for invading Europe or bombing America. To some extent, those calls are likely just a part of state propaganda aimed at a domestic audience intended to brainwash the public into believing that Putin will make Russia great again.
Nevertheless, Russia's actions speak even louder than the words of their political leaders. Since the early 1990s, Russia has tried to restore control over former Soviet space, either openly or through its proxies. It openly invaded Georgia in 2008, annexed Crimea in 2014 and controls parts of Moldova (Transnistria), Georgia (Abkhazia and South Ossetia) and Ukraine (Donbass). The Kremlin supports the most notorious dictators like Bashar Assad, Alexander Lukashenko and the like.
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From RTÉ News, US and Russia square off at the UN Security Council over the Ukraine crisis
Within Russia, Putin's regime mercilessly murders its critics and political opponents like Anna Politkovskaya, Boris Nemtsov and many others. Opposition leader Alexi Navalny recently just escaped death by poisoning by the infamous Novichok.
The regime is just as ruthless abroad. The murder of Alexander Litvinenko, an attempted poisoning of Sergei and Yulia Skripal in the UK and an attempted killing of Montenegro's prime minister Milo Đukanović are just some of the most publicised examples linked with the Kremlin. Russia is fully aware of the collective West's economic and military superiority over Russia so it has been waging an indirect hybrid war against it. The Kremlin spends hundreds of millions of euros annually on anti-Western propaganda trying to undermine the viability of the liberal democracy.
Putin's regime corrupts western politicians, like former German chancellor Gerhard Schröder, and gives financial support to radical parties and groups like France's National Rally or Italy's Five Star Movement. It regularly interferes in elections in Europe and the US, and has meddled in the Brexit referendum and Catalan referendum. Russian military aircraft provocations into NATO member states' air space have become common.
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From RTÉ 1's Six One News, Russia has announced plans to move forthcoming military drills outside Ireland's exclusive economic zone
Even neutral countries like Sweden, Finland or Ireland do not feel safe anymore. Not that long ago, Russians meddled with the subsea cables in Irish waters and their strategic bombers provocatively entered Irish sovereign air space. We all know that Russian forces are due to engage in war games in the Irish exclusive economic zone. All of these tactics are used to weaken the stability and unity of the Western democracies and threaten their people. Following an old Soviet tradition, today's Russia also pursues imperialistic interests in the developing world, from Mali and Mozambique in Africa to Venezuela in Latin America.
Putin continues his hybrid aggression against the West for internal reasons too. The worsening economic situation for ordinary Russians has led to a decline in his popularity. After Russia annexed Crimea, his approval amongst Russians, perceiving Putin as a strong and resolute leader, skyrocketed to an impressive 86%. Abandoning imperialist politics for him would mean the further loss of popular support and the loss of power as a result.
While Russia continues its military build-up near Ukraine's borders, it has put forward its 'propositions' to the West, which look more like an ultimatum. In short, their demands actually mean that Russia wants to a return to the world as it was 25 years ago. This historical world would be divided into the spheres of influence between Russia and the US, in which the former would dominate the ex-Soviet space and Eastern Europe disregarding the interests and wishes of the peoples of those countries. If the West does not accept these demands, Russia alludes that it would use force to achieve its goals.
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From RTÉ Nine News, Putin accuses US of using Ukraine to try to contain Russia
It's impossible to say how much of this is bluffing. Still, the lack of decisiveness and unity on the part of the collective West in the past may have allowed Russia's leadership to believe that a gamble is worthwhile. What is certain is that Putin is a skilled and pragmatic politician and it is unlikely he would gamble with luck if he were not confident in the success.
So far, the West has rejected Putin's unrealistic demands, and demonstrated support for Ukraine. It threatened the Kremlin with severe economic sanctions against Russia if it starts a full-scale military offensive against Ukraine. In the meantime, the US, Britain, Estonia and some other Eastern European countries supplied Ukraine with anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles. These weapons are a substantial addition to the ability of Ukraine's armed forces to face down Russian tanks gathering at the country's border.
The West should make it unambiguously clear that Russia will suffer from destructive economic sanctions if it attempts to take military action
But that may not be enough to convince Putin, and supplying more weapons to Ukraine would be more convincing. Ukraine is currently vulnerable against Russia's medium-range ballistic and cruise missiles Iskander system which Russia is now deploying closer to Ukraine's borders. Supplying Ukraine with highly effective American interceptor anti-missile systems like Patriot, for example, would sort out this vulnerability in Ukraine's defence. That alone would deter Kremlin from using full-scale invasion in Ukraine. That said, supplying and training the Ukrainian military to use these systems would take several months.
In my view, the only practical solution would be for the US to declare a no-fly zone over Ukraine. The West should make it unambiguously clear to the Kremlin that Russia will suffer from international isolation and destructive economic sanctions if it attempts to take military action. While all those measures will not stop Putin's hybrid war against the West and its allies, it could deter him from a full-scale military offensive and the possibility of a major war in Europe.
The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ
