Who monitors the US presidential election?

Analysis: aside from the usual national observers and oversight bodies, the US has also invited an international body to observe the upcoming election

Despite civil war, world wars, and natural disasters, the US has successfully run presidential elections since 1788. At the same time, President Donald Trump's angry insistence at the end of the first presidential debate with Joe Biden, that there was no way the presidential election could be conducted without fraud, constituted an unprecedented attack by a sitting president on the US electoral system. 

A 2017 Brennan Center for Justice Review found that voter fraud is very rare in the US. Furthermore, a Trump-created commission was disbanded in 2018 after it found no evidence of widespread voter fraud. Yet Republicans and Trump persist in promoting the idea that fraud is widespread.

Recently, Channel 4 News found evidence of efforts by the Trump campaign in 2016 to dissuade African Americans from voting. This form of voter suppression is a major concern for Democrats. According to Time magazine's Vera Bergengruen and Lissandra Villa, targeted misinformation campaigns have proved effective.

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From RTÉ One News, Washington corresondent Brian O'Donovan meets voters in Pennsylvania who regret voting for Donald Trump in 2016

This raises the question of how US elections are monitored and by whom. In order to hold free and fair elections, countries often seek international assistance to ensure compliance with international standards.  The right to participate in government is proclaimed and guaranteed by the Universal Declaration on Human Rights and the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights. 

Many will be surprised to learn that the US has invited the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to observe the upcoming elections. This is in addition to the usual national observers and oversight bodies such as the Election Assistance Commission, a bipartisan federal agency established for the purpose of maintaining election integrity but regarded as ineffective.

Election observation is a key aspect of the work the OSCE does to promote human rights, democracy, and rule of law across Europe, Central Asia, and North America. Its comprehensive security concept, based on the 1975 Helsinki Act, considers the human dimension of security (protection and promotion of human rights, democracy and rule of law), to be critical for the maintenance of peace and stability.

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From OSCE, how OSCE election observers work

An election in itself does not constitute democracy. Free and fair elections require respect for the rights to freedom of opinion, expression and association, along with peaceful assembly and freedom from fear and intimidation. All of these rights must be open to equal enjoyment without distinction.

Following an invitation to observe the US elections and based on an earlier ‘needs assessment mission’, the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights has deployed a limited election observation mission for these elections. The OSCE previously observed nine elections in the US, most recently the mid-term elections in November 2018. The OSCE Parliamentary Assembly is also planning to deploy an observer delegation.

International observers will closely follow the fundamental components of the elections, including the legal framework, election administration (voter registration, identification, alternative voting mechanisms, and measures to ensure secrecy of the vote), constituency delimitation, new voting technologies, the campaign environment, campaign finance and coverage by the media.

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From RTÉ News' States Of Mind podcast, Brian O'Donovan and Jackie Fox look at the complicated US voting system and why absentee ballot voting isn't a partisan problem.

While mission members will visit a limited number of polling stations on election day, observers will not conduct a systematic observation of voting, counting or tabulation of results. The day after the elections, the preliminary findings and conclusions will be presented at a press conference. A final report summing up the observation and making recommendations for improvements will be published approximately two months after the end of the election process.

US elections present many challenges, some associated with their highly decentralised nature and the different rules that apply in different states. Mail or absentee ballots are proving especially controversial. Originally introduced to facilitate soldiers voting during wartime, the privilege was gradually expanded. In 1978, California became the first state to allow voters to apply for an absentee ballot without having to provide an excuse. It is noteworthy that a study conducted by Stanford University’s Democracy and Polarization Lab  analysed data in three states that permit universal voting by mail (California, Utah, and Washington), and did not find any evidence to support the current US president's claim that vote-by-mail advantaged one political party over another.

All elections have weaknesses, but social media has provided a new platform for foreign interference. Even if this interference proves ineffective, it has the potential to undermine the legitimacy of the process and outcome. Russian propagandists are especially adept at exploiting such platforms. This time around, instead of creating their own falsehoods, they are primarily amplifying Trump's lies.

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From RTÉ Radio 1's Drivetime, CNN journalist and author Tom Foreman on unease and outrage over Donald Trump's comments in relation to conceding power if he loses the election

In the US, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) coordinate with federal, state, and local election partners to safeguard US voting processes and maintain the integrity of elections. It is noteworthy that both organizations have urged the American public to critically evaluate their information sources, and to seek out reliable and verifiable information.

The FBI is responsible for investigating foreign interference and malicious cyber activity targeting the US election infrastructure. CISA, on the other hand, is responsible for protecting critical infrastructure from physical and cyber threats. Both agencies have highlighted the potential threat posed by attempts to spread disinformation regarding cyberattacks on US voter registration databases or voting systems.

Most worryingly, they have found evidence of efforts to spread false information through various online platforms in order to discredit the electoral process. However, both agencies have found no information suggesting any cyberattack on US election infrastructure that has compromised the integrity of the election process. This is in stark contrast to the allegations being made by Trump which neither he nor any of his officials have provided evidence to substantiate. At the same time, he has been silent on the flaw in the Electoral College process that has led the loser of the popular vote to win the White House, as this clearly worked to his advantage in 2016.

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From RTÉ News' States of Mind podcast, Brian O'Donovan and Jackie Fox look at the controversies around postal votes in the upcoming US presidential election

In fact, the president is the most serious threat to the electoral process. Decisions such as that taken in Ohio and Texas to reduce postal vote drop-off locations and threats by Trump supporters to closely monitor voting in ways that may intimidate other voters will undoubtedly harm the integrity of the elections. However, Trump has consistently prevaricated on whether he will accept the outcome. Vice President Mike Pence refused to answer a direct question about the peaceful transfer of power during the Vice Presidential debate.

Trump is stoking fears created by the misinformation campaign conducted by those that want to disrupt and delegitimise the whole process, irrespective of the result. The level of polarization among voters is such that a peaceful transfer of power is now something that cannot be guaranteed.

The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ