The world’s most prestigious tennis tournament begins at Wimbledon next Monday.
It is just three weeks since Stanislas Wawrinka denied Novak Djokovic a career Grand Slam in an excellent French Open final and now the players have to adjust to the most dramatic surface change from the red clay of Roland Garros to the green grass of Wimbledon.
Despite his heartbreaking loss in Paris, Djokovic remains firm favourite to retain his title. He is having a terrific season having won the Australian Open and four of the five Masters titles.
He has beaten all his main rivals this year and has at times seemed almost unplayable – his destruction of Rafa Nadal in the French Open and his opening two sets against Andy Murray in that same tournament were as close to perfect tennis as possible.
His game suits grass as he likes the low bouncing fast ball which should ensure plenty of winners from his groundstrokes and serve. He had his heart set on winning in France this year and we will have to see how he recovers from this disappointment but I believe he is mentally strong enough to bounce back and win Wimbledon.
Andy Murray is second favourite to win the tournament and is arguably playing the best tennis of his career. He reached the final of the Australian Open and the semi-final at Roland Garros, losing to Djokovic on both occasions.
Murray has just won Queens for the fourth time and grass is the surface he appears most comfortable on. It suits his big serving game along with his terrific groundstrokes and he is guaranteed the home support. In many ways, his game is similar to Djokovic’s.
His biggest obstacle will be his recent poor record against the World no.1. He has lost to the Serb in their last eight encounters, although Murray fans will point out that he did beat him to win Wimbledon in 2013 and in the semi-finals of the London Olympics.
While many would love to see last year’s finalist, the great Roger Federer, win an eighth Wimbledon title I feel that his time for winning Grand Slams has passed.
The Wimbledon final last year was his sole Grand Slam final appearance in the last three years. He lost in the third round of the Australian Open and the quarter-final of the French this year.
He has had a reasonably successful season thus far with four titles, including beating Djokovic in the final in Dubai, but it is as a result of his recent poor Grand Slam form that I do not believe he will win another Slam.
However, grass is undoubtedly his best chance as his game is perfectly suited to the surface and he comes into the tournament having won the warm up tournament at Halle last week.
The last ten Wimbledon men’s tournaments have been won by one of the top three seeds each year but we must look at the other contenders.
There are many players who will consider themselves in with a chance of winning the tournament but all have major question marks against them. Stanislas Wawrinka played stunning tennis and kept his nerve in beating Djokovic to win the French Open.
Wawrinka arguably is the most powerful player in the game at the moment. However, it is the Swiss player’s inconsistency which so often lets him down.
Having won in Paris, he went on to lose in the opening round of Queens to Kevin Anderson. Grass is, without doubt, his least favourite surface and he has failed to progress past the quarter-final stage of the competition and indeed has only made it past the second round on one occasion since 2010.
However, were he to make it past the opening week, he may become more comfortable on the surface and would be a very dangerous opponent.
Rafa Nadal, the two time former champion, is having the worst season of his career. He is currently ranked World no. 10 which is his lowest ranking since 2005.
The Spaniard has not looked the same player since surgery last year and is suffering from a crisis in form and confidence. His groundstrokes have lacked their usual depth and he was dismantled by Djokovic at the French Open.
He has lost in early rounds in the last three years at Wimbledon and I cannot see him going beyond the quarter-finals.
Grigor Dimotrov, although he has not been impressive this year, had the best performance of his career in Wimbledon last year when he beat Murray in straight sets on his way to reaching the semi-final.
His game is suited to grass and is due a return to form. Thomas Berdych, a previous finalist in 2010, has reached the semi-finals of all Grand Slams but is rarely able to back up big wins in Slams with a second victory and can be mentally fragile.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga showed a return to form with a semi-final appearance at Roland Garros and has performed well on grass in the past. The Frenchman’s big serve, forehand, net skills and athleticism have served him well previously at Wimbledon, where he has reached the semi-finals in two of the last four years.
The talented Kei Nishikori has improved his consistency levels significantly in the last year but has never gone beyond the fourth round at SW 19.
David Ferrer is a player who regularly reaches the later stages of Grand Slams but lacks the sufficient artillery to win Wimbledon.
Milos Raonic and Marin Cilic have both suffered from injuries this year and do not have great records on grass although both would be dangerous opponents if they were to build momentum early in the tournament. Nick Kyrgios, who beat Nadal last year, has the game for grass and may cause an upset.
After 11 years and counting, the current American Grand Slam drought, which is their longest in history, shows no sign of coming to an end.
We should be in for a fascinating two weeks of tennis with plenty of upsets but Djokovic is the man to beat.
Lastly, congratulations to Ireland’s James McGee who recently broke into the top 150 in the world.
Although he lost in the qualifiers of Wimbledon this week, he is enjoying the best year of his career and will hope to replicate his achievement of last year in qualifying for the US Open in August.
